Market analysis weekend of May 12 2018
The way employed here is always reactive not predictive. We do not forecast we just react to the market. For 6 weeks it indicated to us to be out in the sidelines. We look at the major indexes at the end of the day for 10-25 mins and based on price and volume we see if we enter or exit.
Price is the only true North Star. Volume indicates the commitment by 100s of institutional buyers with total of billions of dollars to buy.
#1 and only priority is preserving our capital at all costs check our method how and why
Market is in rally and things are looking good but I will explain why we should still wait 1 more week or less
53.4% of stocks in S&P 500 are above their 100 day SMA (say there are 100 stocks in entire market 53 stocks are above their price averaged over their last 100 days) 1st chart
This week delta market sentiment turned bullish after 6 weeks of bearishness
The Nasdaq closed above its 50-day moving average for a sixth session in a row. The S&P 500 did the same for a third session in a row.
The Nasdaq needs only a 1.3% advance to bump up against the 7500 price level. But the S&P 500 needs a 2.7% gain to test the 2800 level.
Dow 25000 is quite nearby
Accumulation distribution (A rating is top and E ratings is bottom ) for S&P is still D
NYSE advance decline line has made a new high. Above chart 2 . But you see, only on May 9th on above average volume with solid volume increase did S&P clear the 50 day Simple moving average (SMA )
It’s good to be cautious and not jump in.. we need to let it play. All the indexes are close to the Previous all time high potential resistances. Things just began to look up and this coming week will let us know