Amazon physical stores sales no one is talking about. AMZN much better than advertisng sales

Summary : with no growth at all we can expect a revenue of 75.97 – 79.85 Billion dollars for Q4 of 2018.

amazon AMZN is reporting its Q4 2018 quarterly report at market close on Thursday January 31st 2019.  look at the below table found here . this is from form 10-Q found on page 20. this below is table 1 in this post.

screen shot 2019-01-30 at 12.18.53 pm

For Physical stores line number 2 in 2017 for both 3 months ending and 9 months ending Septemnber sales were 1,276 Million dollars. Why? On page 4 of the annual report

“Our business is affected by seasonality, which historically has resulted in higher sales volume during our fourth quarter, which ends December 31. We recognized 33%, 32%, and 34% of our annual revenue during the fourth quarter of 2015, 2016, and 2017. Fourth quarter 2017 results include revenue attributable to Whole Foods Market, which we acquired on August 28, 2017.”

Now look at Net sales for the year ending 2017 in the following table found here on page 69 of form 10K

this below is table 2 in this post

screen shot 2019-01-30 at 12.34.53 pm

In the above table, it would not escape your attention that they had 0 dollars sales in physical stores in 2015 and 2016 and year ending 2017 it is 5,798 Million dollars.

Now in the first table by the 9 months ending September 2018 the sales is 12,824 Million  US Dollars

Just 9 months sales increased 121 % growth! this is better than the advertising segment growth (the other ) which is just 6,720 million from table 1

2015 to 2016 – the other advertisement segment grew 72.5 % and then from 2017-2018 it grew by 57.7 % but for first 9 month of 2018 it grew by 44.4 % compared to entire 2017.

Physical stores sales for Holiday season 2018 is going to add billions of dollars since amazon released here

Amazon today announced a record-breaking holiday season thanks to its customers all around the world, with more items ordered worldwide than ever before. Amazon customers shopped at record levels from a wide selection of products across every department, discovering top holiday gifts and trending products offered at deep discounts and low prices. Some of the best-selling products this season included, all-new Echo Dot, L.O.L. Surprise! Glam Glitter Series Doll, fashion items from Carhartt, and Bose QuietComfort Wireless Headphones, among others.

So from table 1 we have net sales for 9 months ending 2018 is 160,504 million US dollars. Now last quarter revenue was 56,576. let’s just for fun add them both. we get revenue based on no growth whatsoever 217,080 million us dollars. Now if around 35 % of annual revenue is got from 4th quarter. then without any growth Q4 revenue would be 35 % of 217, 080 which is equal to 75,978 million us dollars!

Now lets assume very reasonably for revenue growth comparing Q4 quarter 2017 to Q4 quarter 2018 of a growth of 32 % (Q4 2017 to Q4 2016 was 38.3 %) then we get revenue  of 79.86 Billion in Q4 of 2018





the behavior of the beast

In the mind, as in life, it is always 20-20 looking back (hindsight is always clearer). In Trading the philosophy of this blog is always 20-20.

the closing price itself is the most significant. Why? yesterday (again 20-20) is a prime example. NASDAQ opened 106 points down – around 1.4 %. went down 124 points compared to the previous day’s close (1.73%) but then closed at 7085 about 12 points higher than it opened. Look at the following 5 min chart. It is range bound and closed at upper part of the range.

screen shot 2019-01-29 at 10.41.26 am

Now look at the chart below. It is S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average ($S5FI)

screen shot 2019-01-29 at 10.53.59 am

on 1/22/2018 this very reliable portent dropped by more than 11%. that was a good scare. Now on that day (Tuesday, right after MLK holiday) NASDAQ dropped by 136 points (1.9%)

screen shot 2019-01-29 at 11.05.50 am

Now look at the behavior – both days. the charts indicate the behavior. on 1/22 clear down trend and 136 point drop and $S5FI dropped 11 + % points. that is why IBD said on 1/23 day end – “Stock market bulls breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday as Wall Street endured another whipsaw session.”

Yesterday though the drop was significant. the volume was lower compared to 1/25 (Friday). it was a range bound day and closed at upper end of the range. and $S5FI dropped by only 1.6 % points.

and also both yesterday and on 1/22 the volume fell on both NASDAQ and NYSE exchanges.

another good sign for NASDAQ is that the candles are bouncing above their 10 days SMA.

as a side-note : NASDAQ volume is about 2.4 billion and the dollar volume is 120 Billion daily!! Now we let the Big dogs like pension funds, and mutual funds and Quant automatic computerized trading, ETF managers, hedge funds play it out in the day.

We are concerned only with end of the day price and the behavior during the day and psychological important Moving averages like 50 Days and 200 days. Somehow this along with major support and resistances. It gives us great relief and mental rigor when we avoid the fight during the day. 

I am continuing to be in the market. Long QLD.

Happy trading !



the beast has woken up

screen shot 2019-01-28 at 12.33.50 pm

It will not escape your attention ladies and gentlemen that for the last 8 trading days in NASDAQ since Jan 15th, it has closed above its 50 day SMA.

on 1/22 there was a drop and high to low difference of 130 points but still it bounced neatly above 50 day SMA and closed above the century figure of 7000, a good 20 points above it.

similarly on 1/23 a nice push up/buying pressure from low to close of 75 points, a good bounce above 50 days SMA can most importantly a close of 7025.5 points above the previous day’s close.

Closing price is critical and a close above 50 days SMA, a good bounce above it; and then above the century figure of 7025 and then above the previous day’s close…these all scream about one thing. The market is refusing to let go it’s gains. this is so unlike the previous 3 attempts to rally.

its good to see another good gains on 1/24 and 1/25.

IBD has this point “The interesting part is that the leadership is shared and broad, so far. Nine sectors are up about 7% this year, including electronics, energy, banks, software, finance, transportation, chips, S&Ls and retail.

Admittedly this is early to be identifying leaders. But if the trend holds and grows, the stock market could be looking at a rally with many players. What bull wouldn’t like that?”

For me i like this and am already long on QLD.