tests and failures

august 2019 is a notable month. My little niece was born and i travelled to USA to be with my sister and her husband and my little niece Anaya!

Also August 14th 2019,I have also tweaked my strategy. The basic reason is that i was entering late. So new strategy is Trading at horizontal lines. I got this idea from reading Naresh Nambisan at this article.

Now is this buying low and selling high? It seems he is just risking a lot by trying to catch falling knives. for example in the “method how and why” on point 4 it surely says “Buy at the top sell at the bottom “. Yes i was not precise in this tag line. I should have been more precise. the paragraph following the tagline says – Buying at the beginning of the trend or thereabout indicates that. So i am changing that to – “Buying in strength and selling in strength” No this is also not precise

So what am i going to do – last few months of observations i have seen – Buying at the demand zone – or where prices have stabilized after a run down or down trend. Selling at supply zone after the prices have stabilized after a run up or up trend.

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big picture  above in the daily chart – a 800 points up swing from august 6th low to Sept 12th high.

Sept 5th was a bench mark candle +135 points shoots up the 50 days SMA (simple moving average). Closes (7874) up almost 100 points above the 50 Days SMA (7783). High of 7904. Then next 3 days goes down 200 points to a low !! again it goes up Hit 8000 and then goes down 200 points to a low in 2 days!

again on Sept 20th a strong red candle 87 points down. Yesterday Sept 23rd 2019 does not even hit 7900

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You can see in the above chart – three times it tested 7900 and it failed down.

9/22 4 pm it tested

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11 4 hours candles or 88 half hour candles and it could not go past 7900.

So short at 7900 for about 150 points profit.

happy trading !



Crude – what a head fake!

in my last post i mentioned how crude has broken above the 200 days moving average in a ‘fantastic’ way. Since the market is always right, and the price is the only true north star, i hit my stop loss and exited the position i was in.

Yes my three standing orders got triggered, and here are they. Now why you might be wondering i am trading only 1 contract each. Lol, Living while traveling is cheap and asia is cheaper!

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I have a sell standing order on crude right below at 54.64 with a expectation that it will fall upoto the next support around 53.15 and nice 150 ticks. very tight stop loss at 54.84.

why ? Crude is at critical support as the 1 month chart shows.

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weekly forecast Nasdaq

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It is going up and upper!

See from the chart above, about 83% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 days SMA. The breath is profound and good. It has reached the April 2019 highs. So, if that is the case then, is a correction imminent ? No, not right away; for the price is not falling.

The following has been added to how and why page.

This (# 3 and #4) i have added after a few years of full time trading as of July 13th 2019 (in south indian city of Hyderabad): Price is the only true north star. Not only all is in the price, all is the price.

Buy at the top sell at the bottom –
Profit in assets are only made at the price you buy not at the price you sell. So you go long (buy) at the beginning or there about of an uptrend or go short (sell) at beginning or thereabouts of a downtrend. Since price is the only true North Star. One ‘exits’ at the top or bottom to make true profit and to accumulate assets. In both cases – long or short – you are buying low and selling high (in trend following jargon – you are always buying and selling in strength, that is you are little late to the party and leave a little more earlier) . THIS DOES NOT MEAN YOU ARE ACCUMULATING ASSETS AS PRICE IS FALLING. In fact it is exactly opposite to it. Accumulating assets as prices are falling is buying high and selling low ( you sell low because you can’t bear the pain of loss). You always accumulate assets when price is rising. You exit assets when it’s price is falling.

slow burn up in crude

Crude Oil fantastically broke up yesterday. It shattered a 1 month ceiling and crossed up and above the 200 days SMA.

I’m long on crude, with a stop loss just below 60 dollars and sell limit order at 62.34.

Let’s look at the one month chart.  Screen Shot 2019-07-11 at 9.47.23 AM

as you can see the chart above Crude is at 1 month high and uncertainty between 55 and 60 is gone (i personally lost about 3 round trip trades and was stopped out..total loss about 120 ticks. But the big losses was kept at bay by keeping tight stop losses)

I am really tempted to increase my stop loss in this trade currently. Entered at 60.38 and because of this ‘Slow burn up’ in the below chart, i feel the next near term rally has started

Screen Shot 2019-07-11 at 9.47.56 AM

You see in the chart above for 7 days the movement has been sideways (forming a good support at 56.50 ), and then up. Why did i not enter at 57.00??  Two reasons – one, Stopped out 3 times. Two, the resistance of 60.00 was just too close.

So the stock market is up and sustained up. EURUSD went up 100 pips. Gold is up. Crude is up.

from the charts, by all counts (4 and counting), a near term rally has begun.

i am NQU19 long, CLU19 long, Long TQQQ. Gold – GCQ19 i’m waiting for 1425 to be taken out (I already have buy limit orders on it).

I have already taken 80 points profit on NQ. Reentered on an automatic buy limit order on Charles Schwab at 7959. Stop loss at 7910.

Happy travel trading!



why is beta not enough for the long run – 9,900 % in apple stock

i was listening to a wonderful IBD podcast. MarketSmith Senior Product Coach Scott St. Clair was candid, humorous, self-deprecating. The middle part of the talk focussed on human behaviors. (behavioral finance)

there were gems in it. One is the fidelity study.  here is the business insider article of September 2017 titled – Fidelity Investments Did A Study On Which Client Accounts Did Best And What They Found Was Hilarious

“They found that the best performing accounts were from investors who were DEAD! In second place were investors who had FORGOTTEN they had accounts at Fidelity.”

Scott says this (paraphrasing) : I had a client who died and the company policy was that i cannot touch – i cannot sell or add to his positions.

“He was stuck in all these great stocks, and he didn’t have me to get him out of them..wiggle him out because they were going up” (check the same interview of podcast at youtube here at 22:05)

thank you Scott for your honesty and humor.

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the red line is AMZN last 5 years. the blue line is TQQQ (triple NASDAQ 100), and the bottom is NASDAQ.

David Chung (@IBD_DChung)  from IBD says this says this “Judo masters begin not by learning how to throw, but how to fall. They practice this skill until it’s as natural as breathing. No matter how many times they’re flipped, they can rise to fight again.”

He goes on to say : “Highly successful stock pickers go through similar training: They must learn how to cut their losses short. This means selling a stock when it’s down 7% or 8% from your purchase price.”


Crude Oil short trade

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I’m looking at daily chart and a significant trend reversal from long to short is showing. See on daily chart a clear bounce down happened on July 2nd of about 3.00 dollars.

I’m shorting below 55.45. exiting at 55.07 and then shorting below at 54.45 to exit at 52.39

Orders placed and first stop is at 56.15 , thens the second stop is at 55.10. Risk reward ration approximately 1:2