2 dangerous sell signals in the market

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look at the above chart of QLD – nasdaq 100 Double . both the 55 days SMA just crossed the 208 days SMA from above and also the 10 days EMA crossed the 22 Days SMA from above (rather bounce).

My expectations is that market is going to fall further.

NASDAQ is just above the critical 7000 level we have had triple top

NQ has a a shorting opportunity at 6800 level

 

making money in a down market

when market falls it does so quickly.

Now you see in the previous posts how all macro signs pointed this right before 10th October 2018.

it can be found in three parts – part 1  part 2 and part 3

now i made money during this fall (anyone interested to see the proof, please contact me at exlporingdesh at gmail dot com ) or leave email address in  comment section.

how does one make money when market declines.

there are three straight forward ways  A) buy an inverse ETF like QID. B) buy puts on NASDAQ or C) short NQ futures.

Only B has limited risk limited reward.

Let me show you how

happy trading travelers

 

market is in rally

A follow through day is a gain in major indexes for 1.25 % or more in high volume. The market did just that today.Â

IBD says this

The midterm election results and a 2.6% gain for the Nasdaq composite delivered a nice present for stock market bulls Wednesday. The Nasdaq 100 did even better, up 3.1%, helped by strong moves from FANG stocksAmazon.com(AMZN), up nearly 7%, and Netflix(NFLX), up 5%.

The Nasdaq composite followed through on the seventh day of its rally attempt as several top-rated growth stocks made explosive moves in the stock market today. The S&P 500 also followed through with conviction, and the Dow Jones industrial average surged also, both with gains of 2.1%.

lets look at if other stocks in S&P 500 are participating in the action yesterday .

Look at the chart below – 13 % increase in the number of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 days SMA!!

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i have gotten into the market from all cash position yesterday.

Red flag Research shows that a distribution day in any of the first three sessions after a follow-through day can foretell a failed rally. A distribution day that comes later is easier for a rally to overcome. THE RISK DROPS OFF SHARPLY from the 6th day or so

Red flag 2 : top rated stocks action :: in early stages of new uptrend strong action of leading stocks is CRUCIAL. Top rated stocks should be breaking out of bases in big volume.

A confirmed uptrend can weather an occasional sell-off every week or two and still show the fight to keep rising.

THERE WERE 7 distribution days many times in 2017 yet it rose 37% !!

I have gotten in the market yesterday. Good deepavali gift!!

happy trading

 

Best quarter in 5 YEARS!!

CNBC has this “For the quarter, the S&P 500 rose 7.2 percent, its best quarterly gain since the fourth of quarter 2013.”

The article further adds this “The Nasdaq Composite also notched a 7.1 percent quarterly gain, its best since first quarter 2017. ”

DMSI – delta market sentiment indicator is 56.0

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s&p 500 stocks above their 50 day SMA stabilized after it declined entire last week.

my decision – continue to stay in QLD and long on NQ

what’s going on in the market

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Friday Sept 28th around 10:00 am IST 00:30 am just past midnight New York time

today would be the last trading day of the month and also the last trading day off the quarter

Yesterday prices faded as the day ended. In the above chart $S5FI – The percentage of stocks in S&P 500 that are above their 50 days SMA…they have fallen the entire week!

18 points fall from August 29th from 73 to 55.

last time from June 12th to June 28th s&p 500 fell 83 points and $S5FI fell 21 points .

So that is a red flag

but the A/D line for NYSE actually went up

So i am little confused. Why did the market fade away so badly yesterday ? What are stocks falling below their 50 day SMA?

Now price is the true north star so

my decision  : I will continue to be long on QLD and I am also long on NQ

 

big red flag exiting NQ

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Tuesday Sept 25th 2018 around 10:30 am – 12:30 a IST, which is past midnight Tuesday 01:00 am – 3:00 am Tuesday New York Time

I have exited NQ with around 60 points gain. Looking at the above chart. biggest red candle in the number of S&P 500 stocks that fell below their 50 days SMA . Its a 10 point drop ! S&P 500 dropped little more than 10 points. Very great anomaly. for a 0.3 % drop in S&P 500 the number of S&P 500 MEMBERS that dropped below their 50 DAY SMA fell by 15%.

NYSE advanced declined line – 1918 stocks down on 2.3 billion volume. Only 896 stocks up on 992 million volume

one positive sign : NDX opened at 7477 with 45 points gap down from previous day close.

now that was the lowest too! It swung up 71 points to close around 17 point more than previous day’s close!

my decision : i have already exited NQ, I am continuying to hold on to QLD

 

the funds were buying everything

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Friday, September 21st 2018, around 9:00 am IST, around 11:30 pm Thursday Night New York Time

S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average rose to all time high. Out of 197 industry groups tracked by IBD winners led losers by 7 to 1 !!

Look at the above chart – a 7.29 % jump in percentage of stocks in S&P 500 trading above 50 day SMA!  to 70.03!

Important note : Friday is quadruple witching day. Volume is going to explode.

QLD good up day, good upswing above 9 Day EMA, good volume – 1.174 Million. OBV increased to 11.83 million

NYSE Advance decline line – fantastic and highest! 1907 stocks up on 2.48 Billion volume, which is about 4 times the volume of 898 stocks down on 0.70 billion volume !

Top bull day!

Decision : i will continue in the market Long on QLD and NQ