I would like to thank Helga Sweeney and Alex for their observations on “pesky charts”
what about supply and demand for NASDAQ? or for that matter DOW and S&P ?
Before i answer that – lets look at some basic fundamental traits in the charts for 2017 and till now 2018
what did the pundits say – This is a valid dictum – Do opposite what the pundits say and you will be alright !!
look at what IBD said “Since 1963, the S&P 500 delivered 19 years in which it rallied more than 15%. But each year following those big gains averaged a more modest 7.5% advance.” and “investment strategists and fund managers expect more modest stock price gains in 2018.”
I respect IBD a lot; In fact the big picture column is fantastic and is a daily read for me to gauge the “Big Money flow”- which is nothing but this : How is the price performing wrt the volume on a daily basis. How are leading stocks like YY, AMZN and others performing? For we know that with first signs of big selling the leading stocks lose first and then the volume increases to overall stock market as it falls.
NASDAQ’s number of distributions days (high volume selling) is just 1 in the last 30 days and It is up 7.3 % till Jan 22nd 2018! we haven’t even finished one month yet!
The S&P 500’s 2017 return was more than double the big-cap bogey’s 8.50% average annual gain over the past 10 years. The Nasdaq composite index shot up 29.64% and the DOW jones gained 25.08%!
Only once in the lasts 25 YEARS the S&P is up more than 6 % in Jan (1997 – 6.7%). the S&P just hit 6.00 % just yesterday !!
the delta market sentiment indicator is approaching 74% (74 % of around 2500 stocks are above they mid term moving average)
the leading economic indicators (LEI) is healthily positive last one year
the stock market is healthy and going strong with no head winds at all
this year there has been over 60 times that NASDAQ hit high.
this week begins with 6th week of record high.
It has to be of note Ladies and Gentlemen, fellow travelers that we have had 46 bullish weeks so far – NASDAQ has had 21+ %, DOW – 18.6 %, and S&P has had 15 % return
About 65% of market is moving above their 75 day Moving average!!
the famous DOJI occurred on June 12th 2017 – nothing but the the first candle in the first chart – then look at the trend!! Weekly is amazing
Now we know that price is the true north star. We react to the market – we let market show us in 2 charts what is going on. We don’t predict. We buy when the market is going up and sell when when market is going down. Period!
So i am on the long! there is a clear break to the upside occurred at the end of Sept 2017.
Happy trading and travelling
PS: i don’t give recomendations, and this is only my personal opnion.
For 38 weeks in a row – straight weeks, Since Donald Trump was elected the 45th U.S. President the market has been in a bullish trend. That is it has been around 269 days of relentless bull (a very, very mature bull market though).
Many people got left out, because they predicted the market collapse. The market is a leading indicator of the overall health of the economy of the USA
S@P gained around 18%
DOW gained around 21%
NASDAQ gained around 23%
41 times DOW hit new highs!! 41 times!
Monday August 21, 2017 is a coast to caost solar eclipse and some people as usual are predicting dire straits for USA. They may or may not be right. But as of today USA is doing great!!
But for the naysayers
Here is good news too
Electronics for Imaging – EFII, collapsed 41% in thousands of times more volume than average. This might be a time to time to buy Put Options. Remember Enron accounting irregularities! – Thursday was quarterly results and they failed to release it , citing issues over revenue recognition!!
Applied Optoelectronics – AAOI, plummeted 27%. The maker of optical-communications devices forecast current-quarter revenue that was well below estimates. Before Friday’s drop, Applied had best-possible IBD ratings. Its fiber optics industry group was ranked No. 1 of 197.
Trivago- TRVG, collapsed 18% to a three-month low after the travel-booking company reported loss in the quarter.
Impinj- PI, skidded 23% in more than seven times its usual volume. The tracking-chip company beat Q2 sales and earnings views, but gave a soft outlook.
By 1 pm today – the NASDAQ dropped about 31 points (the futures were up 45 points at one time last night). That shows to us a critical point that i have observed over many months now: stocks don’t always follow the futures.
Apple earned $1.67 a share, (up 18% YOY); sales : $45.4 billion (up 7% 3 months) That was well above what analysts expected Apple to earn and for sales ($1.57 a share on sales of $44.89 billion).
Volume was lower on the NYSE compared with the same time Noon EST, but higher on the Nasdaq, (The most intense trading in Apple shares — running about 5 times greater than the 50 days moving average of volume. Losing stocks led winners by 12-to-7 on the NYSE and by about 13-to-5 on the Nasdaq.
Solar energy stocks, the No. 1 industry group out of the 197 that IBD tracks, was Wednesday’s worst-performing
It could have been a potentially good money making day. I should not have gotten out so early. Shorted at 9:40 am with 1 contract of NQZ14 and left way too early.
I was not prepared at all, and I only saw the signs later, much later.
What was the signs? Simple as before- Price and Volume.
4087 was a 1 month old support and resistance from above
Now, lets look at the 1 day 2 min chart, a 4500 volume contract! Just right at the open there were a rush of sellers.
By 9:48 am I should have seen this spike in volume, the tallest bar in the left .
afterwards there was not turning back. at 9:38am, 9:40 am, 9:42 am, and 9:44 am all great volume spikes and price decreasing.
Hope fully next time we will not miss it