Great rally so far but OBV not convincing on NASDAQ

according to IBD – “The Nasdaq composite ended with a gain of 1.5%. But the blemish to the gain was that the index met with some selling pressure as it approached the 7500 level. The index’s 200-day moving average currently sits around 7520. The Nasdaq closed in the upper half of Monday’s range, but it ended just below the 50-day moving average.”

The On Balance Volume (OBV) on QLD is not convincing – it is just above the levels on Nov 9th 2018 which is 59.337 Million as opposed to yesterday which was 59.786 million. no divergence (this divergence was exactly seen on Nov 7th 2018 at 62.335 million which was much below at similar QLD price levels on 10/22 when then OBV was 67.719 million)

then the market fell from 7500 Levels on Nov 7th to 6900 levels on Nov 20th – a drop off 600 points because of volume pumping up the price was not intense. OBV would indicate that very clearly.

according to IBD – “The Dow Jones and S&P 500 each added 1.1%, closing bullishly above their 50-day moving averages. Preliminary data showed volume on the NYSE coming in about 10% lower than Friday’s total. Nasdaq turnover was close to Friday’s.”

but for NASDAQ the cortical level of 7500 is not crossed.

Market is in rally but preserve capital and profits

unchanged Yom Kippur

Screen Shot 2018-09-20 at 9.57.57 AM

market remains unchanged. 65.27 % of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 Days SMA.

Look at the chart above – QLD is in candle sticks weekly 2 years chart

IGV is software setor ETF and XLV is health care sector – QLD is up 124 % and

IGV – 76 % and XLV 30%

Nothing beats QLD

Decision : I will continue to be long on QLD and NQ

good rebound, neat charts

Screen Shot 2018-09-19 at 11.35.12 AMScreen Shot 2018-09-19 at 11.53.07 AM

When the market fell on Monday, Look at the first chart – how much percentage of S&P 500 stocks fell below their 50 Day SMA? Just minuscule!

the second chart is the ETF FFTY is top 50 growth stocks in the market. It is holding well.

NFLX went up well in high volume on Monday.

Decision : I’ll continue to be in the market and am long on QLD and NQ.

big picture for the week of September 4th

Screen Shot 2018-09-08 at 8.58.15 AM

Overall a green flag for uptrend this week. But before that the schools are back in US, end of labor day, back to schools for summer. Traders, investors and Institutions are back in full swing..

The news with tariffs and stuff has not really jittered the market. Lets looks at the big S&P 500 weekly chart

Screen Shot 2018-09-08 at 8.55.05 AM

what a wonderful uptrend!. Neither the S&P 500 nor NASDAQ nor NDX has broken below the 9 Week Exponential moving average. the above chart is brilliant and beautiful!

the Jan 2018 high of S&P 500 is around  2872  now recently we move 1.5 % above the January high and has very timidly retreated. it closed 2871 yesterday.

FFTY – the top growth stocks in the entire market has put in 1% yesterday.

NASDAQ lost 185 points this last week and is down 2.2 % for the week.

Market sentiment indicator – measuring from Thursday to Wednesday went down just 1 point to 62.3

Screen Shot 2018-09-08 at 9.23.05 AM

my only concern is the above chart – For 6 days it went down. yesterday it dropped 3.17 % points but look at the above chart a weekly uptrend from July 2nd 2018!

decision : stay in QLD and NDX but wait on NQ because of the volatility!

Look at chart below – what a wonderful chart – lowest unemployment ever!

Screen Shot 2018-09-08 at 8.57.42 AM

 

 

 

Five days decline in s&p 500 since august 29th top

  1. Present price action has been down. There has been a cluster of high volume selling, august 30th, Tuesday and Wednesday. red flag.
  2.  both S&P 500 and NASDAQ above 22 SMA. green flag
  3. Accumulation and distribution rating has fallen since August 29th top from C- and B for S&P 500 and NASDAQ respectively to D and C-. Red flag.
  4. A/D line for NYSE – 1649 Stocks down in 1.95 billion volume and 1138 stocks up in 1.07 billion. volume actually declined but stocks down on double the volume. Red flag.
  5. % of S&P stocks above 50 days SMA is 67.42 and it stabilized last 3 days with a bounce of 64.43. – Green flag.

decision : Be in QLD avoid long on NQ

Yesterday made 22 points on NQ because of price action.

 

good fall in the market, 2nd in less than 25 days

today is : Thur September 6th 2018 around 9:30 am Hyderabad, India. Time in New York City : 00:08 am on Thursday September 6th 2018

Screen Shot 2018-09-06 at 9.33.50 AM

well them days!

a good pull back put some breaks and exits some people.. yesterday a good bounce off 22 SMA for QLD and NDX is a good sign

never the less the high volume sell off of last 25 -30 trading days has gone up to 5 for the entire market. the +1.2 % sell off in NDX had first occurred on August 15th and then just yesterday.

Now its the 5th continuous decline in S&P last 5 trading days but there is a silver lining. the accumulation distribution line A-D line has flattened with 1533 stocks down in 1.50 Billion volume and 1258 stocks up in 1.6 billion volume (yesterday was 990 stocks up in less than billion volume)

QLD has a clear slicing of 9 EMA on daily chart on higher volume – 517 K volume.

Now look at FFTY below – the leading growth stocks ETF. What a bounce above 22 day SMA and it closed just below the  9 EMA!

Screen Shot 2018-09-06 at 9.54.09 AM

decision : stay in QLD.

for NQ As soon as euro market is opening it is falling

currently : 7525 is a good support and 7550 and 7600 and 7625 is nice resistance

AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, APPL is 25 +% of NASDAQ! only APPL held good yesterday

Happy trading !

 

Hello Readers from shanghai!

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I would like to thank Helga Sweeney and Alex for their observations on “pesky charts”

what about supply and demand for NASDAQ? or for that matter DOW and S&P ?

Before i answer that – lets look at some basic fundamental traits in the charts for 2017 and till now 2018

what did the pundits say – This is a valid dictum – Do opposite what the pundits say and you will be alright !!

look at what IBD said  “Since 1963, the S&P 500 delivered 19 years in which it rallied more than 15%. But each year following those big gains averaged a more modest 7.5% advance.”  and “investment strategists and fund managers expect more modest stock price gains in 2018.”

I respect IBD a lot; In fact the big picture column is fantastic and is a daily read for me to gauge the “Big Money flow”- which is nothing but this : How is the price performing wrt the volume on a daily basis. How are leading stocks like YY, AMZN  and others performing? For we know that with first signs of big selling the leading stocks lose first and then the volume increases to overall stock market as it falls.

NASDAQ’s number of distributions days (high volume selling) is just 1 in the last 30 days and It is up 7.3 % till Jan 22nd 2018! we haven’t even finished one month yet!

The S&P 500’s 2017 return was more than double the big-cap bogey’s 8.50% average annual gain over the past 10 years. The Nasdaq composite index shot up 29.64% and the DOW jones gained 25.08%!

Only once in the lasts 25 YEARS the S&P is up more than 6 % in Jan (1997 – 6.7%). the S&P just hit 6.00 % just yesterday !!

the delta market sentiment indicator is approaching 74% (74 % of around 2500 stocks are above they mid term moving average)

the leading economic indicators (LEI) is healthily positive last one year

the stock market is healthy and going strong with no head winds at all