yield curve inverted market crash

i am not a predictor of the market, neither do i have any crystal ball. but the last post accuracy has been immediately proved in the market on Tuesday December 4th 2018. wow, what  fall!

IBD narrates – “At one point in the session, a 2.78% yield on the five-year note dropped under a 2.80% yield on the shorter two-year note. In other words, it made less sense for investors to hold the longer-dated bond for a specific return.”

usually the 10  year is compared with 2 year curve. But this is telling. Market need something to sell.

IBD continues – This was supposed to be a banner week for the Dow Jones industrial average and the broader stock market. President Donald Trump called off his escalation of China tariffs days after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell traded his hawkish talons for a Santa rally cap. But financial markets just aren’t buying the good cheer.

so i will either short or stay out of the market

preserve our capital and profits at all cost! Market is in correction.

then they my be a possibly to play an other day

Great rally so far but OBV not convincing on NASDAQ

according to IBD – “The Nasdaq composite ended with a gain of 1.5%. But the blemish to the gain was that the index met with some selling pressure as it approached the 7500 level. The index’s 200-day moving average currently sits around 7520. The Nasdaq closed in the upper half of Monday’s range, but it ended just below the 50-day moving average.”

The On Balance Volume (OBV) on QLD is not convincing – it is just above the levels on Nov 9th 2018 which is 59.337 Million as opposed to yesterday which was 59.786 million. no divergence (this divergence was exactly seen on Nov 7th 2018 at 62.335 million which was much below at similar QLD price levels on 10/22 when then OBV was 67.719 million)

then the market fell from 7500 Levels on Nov 7th to 6900 levels on Nov 20th – a drop off 600 points because of volume pumping up the price was not intense. OBV would indicate that very clearly.

according to IBD – “The Dow Jones and S&P 500 each added 1.1%, closing bullishly above their 50-day moving averages. Preliminary data showed volume on the NYSE coming in about 10% lower than Friday’s total. Nasdaq turnover was close to Friday’s.”

but for NASDAQ the cortical level of 7500 is not crossed.

Market is in rally but preserve capital and profits

lessons learnt in market crash – Part 3

Hello traveling traders

Good morning from Sunny Hyderabad. Yesterday was festival of light (deepavali) here and lots of fireworks and goodies to eat!

Part 1 and Part 2 can be found here.

today lets look at russell 2000 a bench mark for small caps

Screen Shot 2018-11-08 at 8.39.54 AM

It will not escape your attention that it is going down since 9/04/2018, a month before the actual crash!! and it drops down the 55 day SMA on 9/26 and stays down there and goes down for 10 days before the general market crash!!

wow!

 

Lessons learnt in market crash – Part 2

Hello travel traders

Good morning from Hyderabad India. Nov 6th is a big day for the USA. it is sunny at about 10:00 am here.

Part 1 can be found here

Screen Shot 2018-11-06 at 9.44.21 AM

FFTY is the growth stocks ETF. It is passively managed fund and tracks the IBD 50 – The best growth stocks in the market. the holdings are updated weekly

you see, Growth stocks break down about 2 – 2 1/2 times that of market. as the market is falling they hold up well for 3-4 days and are resilient. But they start collapsing the faster as the bear market sets in. Why? because market drops 4 times faster then it goes up – because markets climb the wall of worry and fall of the cliff.

Look at the bearish engulfing candle stick pattern at the  tops – a solid red candle after a small green one.

Along with $S5FI this is a reliable portent.

For market  bottoms Growth stocks are first to break out after a follow through day.

Follow-through signals are more likely to fail if distribution days occur in the first few days of a new uptrend. This is one key red flag. A distribution day, which points to institutional selling, involves a drop of 0.2% or more in the Nasdaq or the S&P 500 in higher volume.

Generally, a distribution day within a few days of a follow-through leads to a failed rally. The risk drops off sharply after the fifth day.

A second red flag? In the early stages of a new uptrend, strong action among leading stocks is crucial. Top-rated stocks should be breaking out of bases in big volume. This is a clear sign that professional investors are stepping back in to buy stocks.

have a wonderful day and please vote!

 

Lessons learnt in market crash

S&P 500 Stocks DAILY Above 50-Day Average BEFORE FALL

Price is the true north star and her sisters are a few – one particular one is how many stocks in S&P 500 are above their 50 days SMA ($S5FI)

The first big red candle and a drop of 10 percentage points in the number of stocks above their 50 days SMA happened 12 days  before the actual market crash!

Market lost its floor on October 10th and you see in the above chart that the big red candle appeared on 9/24.

Do you see the gradual descent in the above chart! It falls below all the Moving Averages (MA)..the green 10 Days Exponential MA and also the 22 days SMA and 55 days SMA.

It falls below 50 % on 10/04.

there are other signs that go along with this. More in the coming days posts.

now a drop of more than 10 points in $S5FI occurred  in 4 days by 02/01/2018 and NASDAQ dropped to the low 765 points in the next 6 days!

Similarly $S5FI dropped more than 10 points on 02/27/2018 and NASDAQ dropped to the low of 246 point in the next 3 days.

similarly in 4 days by 03/15/2018 it dropped by more than 10 points and then in next 11 days the NASDAQ dropped by 676 points!

and it dropped by more than 10 points in 4 days by 6/19/2018 and in the next few days NASDAQ dropped 362 points

and it falls by more than 10 points on 9/24/2018 and NASDAQ drops 1000 points in the next 18 days!

I am staying in cash

 

 

 

Where is the stock market now

The delta market sentiment indicator is at 19.6 currently.

Screen Shot 2018-10-20 at 11.14.55 AM

the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that closed below their own resepctive 50 days SMA has fallen to an extreme of 15 % (out of say 100 stocks, only 15 stocks are above their own 50 Days Simple Moving Average (SMA))

According to Delta newsletter – “Since January, 2009 through today, we have only had eight instances when the MSI declined below 20%.  Shown below is a chart of the MSI since January 2, 2009.  Buying the market when the MSI dropped below 20 previously during this bull cycle has benefitted patient investors willing to incur heightened market volatility”

When the Delta MSI drops below 10%, Delta’s MSI based strategies may buy stocks.  During the current bull cycle beginning in 2009, this has happened only twice.  Over the past 27 years, it has happened five times.  These times were:

  • August 1990
  • September 1998
  • July 2002
  • October – December 2008
  • August 2011

The chart below shows the price change in the S&P 500 from the closing monthly price when the MSI went below 10% to twelve months and three years later.  The chart does not include the additional benefit of dividends during the holding periods.

Be prepared to enter soon into the market

 

unchanged Yom Kippur

Screen Shot 2018-09-20 at 9.57.57 AM

market remains unchanged. 65.27 % of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 Days SMA.

Look at the chart above – QLD is in candle sticks weekly 2 years chart

IGV is software setor ETF and XLV is health care sector – QLD is up 124 % and

IGV – 76 % and XLV 30%

Nothing beats QLD

Decision : I will continue to be long on QLD and NQ