Trend outlook 2018

YTD NASDAQ

For the first time since almost 30 years – the entire world is seeing +positive grown for 12 months!

Of the top ten largest corporations in the world in 2009, only one was a technology company – Microsoft.  Today, seven of the ten largest companies worldwide are technology companies including Apple, Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon, Alibaba and Tencent.  The shift to a technology dominated economy provides a boost to earnings growth rates.

Over a fifth of the S&P 500 is represented by the technology sector.  Consensus revenue growth for the technology sector in 2018 is 9.4% which should drive 35% earnings growth.  In the past month, the revenue growth forecast was revised up from 8.7% to the current 9.4%.

The earnings per share for the MSCI AC World Index (ACWI) is above $30.  In the U.S., the S&P 500 consensus earnings estimate is expected to advance by about 11% year-over-year on revenue growth of about 5% off of record levels reached in 2017.

If the P/E remains constant as it has for the past two years, the S&P 500 should be up in-line with earnings or about 11%.

Source : Delta market sentiment

what do you know?

Notice the top 4 sectors – account for 60% of S&P 500 S&P MARCH 2009 TO CURRENT

From the above chart, A draw-down represents the peak-to-trough decline during a specific period of investment. In this case, the XLE dropped -29% in 2011 and -49% from mid-2014 to early 2016. XLE still remains -33% below previous peak levels. As oil prices have been halved, the energy sector and an investor of energy companies has been in a recession.

So look at for 4 sectors – technology, financials, healthcare, consumer discretionary

XLF – financials

XLV- health care

XLY – Consumer discretionary

dow for industrials and NDX for technology

source : delta market sentiment

 

 

those pesky charts!

QLD WEEKLY WEEK OF 10 25 2017

above is a weekly close for QLD.

QLD which is 2X Nasdaq 100 appears to have hit a plateau 2 weeks in a row 10/16 and then last few days.

last 4 trading sessions NASDAQ hit 3 distribution days – which is concerning.

On 5/29 week QLD closed 62.65, where as the MA 20 Weeks was 53.67 – 8.98 dollars difference! about 14 %.  Then it dropped by 6.3 dollars (around 10%)

The situtation is not that bad now – the difference between the two (MA and the price ) is about 4 %

Now for the current scenario – the ATR 20 DAYS is 2.43.

So lets wait and see. No clear sell as yet

the end is not near (at least historically speaking)

The Misery Index is 5.5% today.  Historically, when the Misery Index has been this low, the S&P 500 P/E has ranged from about 15x to 35x with many instances of 25x and above.  The all-time low of the Misery Index from 1960 through September 2017 was February 1966 at 5.28%.  The all-time high was in 1975 at 18.56%.

A year ago, the Misery Index was 6.74%.  The index is down roughly -18% in the past twelve months and the S&P 500 is up 21%.  For now, the index is low and continues to decline which is constructive for further stock price advances.  In the coming months, it will be interesting to see if the Misery Index is able to drop to new all-time lows.

Source : delta market sentiment

very interesting note on Market health

Nasdaq, S&P 500 Make It Seven In A Row; Netflix Jumps On UBS Note

IBD has this – “When it comes to overall market health, what’s interesting to note is that the market has moved from a high distribution-day count in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and overall healthy action in leading growth stocks to a low distribution-day count and suspect action in some leading growth stocks. Many leaders are still acting fine, while others have turned sluggish.”

Market overview- Top is topping even more

WEEKLY CHART JULY - SEPT 2017DAIL CHART SEPT 2017

It has to be of note Ladies and Gentlemen, fellow travelers that we have had 46 bullish weeks so far – NASDAQ has had 21+ %, DOW – 18.6 %, and S&P has had 15 % return

About 65% of market is moving above their 75 day Moving average!!

the famous DOJI occurred on June 12th 2017 – nothing but the the first candle in the first chart – then look at the trend!! Weekly is amazing

Now we know that price is the true north star. We react to the market – we let market show us in 2 charts what is going on. We don’t predict. We buy when the market is going up and sell when when market is going down. Period!

So i am on the long! there is a clear break to the upside occurred at the end of Sept 2017.

Happy trading and travelling

PS: i don’t give recomendations, and this is only my personal opnion.

apple strikes again – up by around 5%

apple strikes again august 2nd 2017

By 1 pm today – the NASDAQ dropped about 31 points (the futures were up 45 points at one time last night). That shows to us a critical point that i have observed over many months now: stocks don’t always follow the futures.

Apple earned $1.67 a share, (up 18% YOY); sales : $45.4 billion (up 7% 3 months) That was well above what analysts expected Apple to earn and for sales ($1.57 a share on sales of $44.89 billion).

Volume was lower on the NYSE compared with the same time Noon EST, but higher on the Nasdaq, (The most intense trading in Apple shares — running about 5 times greater than the 50 days moving average of volume. Losing stocks led winners by 12-to-7 on the NYSE and by about 13-to-5 on the Nasdaq.

Solar energy stocks, the No. 1 industry group out of the 197 that IBD tracks, was Wednesday’s worst-performing