weekly forecast Nasdaq

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It is going up and upper!

See from the chart above, about 83% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 days SMA. The breath is profound and good. It has reached the April 2019 highs. So, if that is the case then, is a correction imminent ? No, not right away; for the price is not falling.

The following has been added to how and why page.

This (# 3 and #4) i have added after a few years of full time trading as of July 13th 2019 (in south indian city of Hyderabad): Price is the only true north star. Not only all is in the price, all is the price.

Buy at the top sell at the bottom –
Profit in assets are only made at the price you buy not at the price you sell. So you go long (buy) at the beginning or there about of an uptrend or go short (sell) at beginning or thereabouts of a downtrend. Since price is the only true North Star. One ‘exits’ at the top or bottom to make true profit and to accumulate assets. In both cases – long or short – you are buying low and selling high (in trend following jargon – you are always buying and selling in strength, that is you are little late to the party and leave a little more earlier) . THIS DOES NOT MEAN YOU ARE ACCUMULATING ASSETS AS PRICE IS FALLING. In fact it is exactly opposite to it. Accumulating assets as prices are falling is buying high and selling low ( you sell low because you can’t bear the pain of loss). You always accumulate assets when price is rising. You exit assets when it’s price is falling.

The BEAST has acted (and thus speaks)

  • NASDAQ about to breakout.
  • Conservative estimates 100-200 points imminent in the next few days.
  • UBNT Ubiquiti Networks. TWLO Twilio. TTD The Trade Desk. PAYC Paycom Software, Inc.  Leading growth stocks.

When a Godzilla or KingKong is moving and running, it is common sense not to second guess what you see.

There is a trading maxim i learnt a few years ago – trade what you see and not what you think. at present it looks like its going to take off! 2 days the KingKong the beast called NASDAQ closed above its 200 days Simple Moving average

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you see in the following charts – the first chart is OBV – On balance volume of QLD – DOUBLE NASDAQ 100 ..when on 10/04/2019 it was 53 million shares. Just yesterday we are 12 points below the close on 10/04 and we hit 53 million shares. Accumulation.

Secondly, look at the second chart of NQH19 futures contract. Incredible ascending triangle! Breakout imminent on NASDAQ.

other signs – Both S&P and DOW Jones have easily surpassed the 200 day SMA recently which just acted like token resistances (according to IBD)

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Weekend Saturday September 15th Market analysis

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  1. NDX 3 months daily chart comfortably above the 9 EMA daily (7519), currently at 7545.50, about 25 points above 9 EMA Daily.
  2. on Friday NDX did not give up so much of any of Thursday’s gains.
  3. 2 red flags on QLD Wednesday and Friday last week 12th and 14th September – Green price candles on Red volume in Heiken – Ashi chart. good volume 1.39 and 1.27 million.
  4. ES broke all short term nasty resistances at 2890 and 2895.
  5. good sign – NYSE advance decline line 5 days of increase. 1433 stocks up in 1.58 million volume and 1344 down in 1.27 million volume.
  6. Accumulation Distribution – C- on S&P 500 and B- on NASDAQ.
  7. Market sentiment indicator – since Thursday (sept 5th) and Friday (sept 6th) was big fall in the market the sentiment indicator went down from 62.3 to 56.1.
  8. very good sign – the above chart – the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day SMA has gone up top 68.45 !

decision – i am going to stay in the market.

good fall in the market, 2nd in less than 25 days

today is : Thur September 6th 2018 around 9:30 am Hyderabad, India. Time in New York City : 00:08 am on Thursday September 6th 2018

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well them days!

a good pull back put some breaks and exits some people.. yesterday a good bounce off 22 SMA for QLD and NDX is a good sign

never the less the high volume sell off of last 25 -30 trading days has gone up to 5 for the entire market. the +1.2 % sell off in NDX had first occurred on August 15th and then just yesterday.

Now its the 5th continuous decline in S&P last 5 trading days but there is a silver lining. the accumulation distribution line A-D line has flattened with 1533 stocks down in 1.50 Billion volume and 1258 stocks up in 1.6 billion volume (yesterday was 990 stocks up in less than billion volume)

QLD has a clear slicing of 9 EMA on daily chart on higher volume – 517 K volume.

Now look at FFTY below – the leading growth stocks ETF. What a bounce above 22 day SMA and it closed just below the  9 EMA!

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decision : stay in QLD.

for NQ As soon as euro market is opening it is falling

currently : 7525 is a good support and 7550 and 7600 and 7625 is nice resistance

AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, APPL is 25 +% of NASDAQ! only APPL held good yesterday

Happy trading !