The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology. It does not contain securities of financial companies including investment companies.
Now QLD is proshares ETF. This leveraged ProShares ETF seeks a return that is 2x the return of its underlying benchmark (target) for a single day, as measured from one NAV calculation to the next.
Now compounding is amazing concept in a up trending market!
in the chart below the red line is QLD ..In 5 years its up 216 % compared to less than 92 % growth for NASDAQ -100 !
Happy trading !
this year there has been over 60 times that NASDAQ hit high.
this week begins with 6th week of record high.
The Misery Index is 5.5% today. Historically, when the Misery Index has been this low, the S&P 500 P/E has ranged from about 15x to 35x with many instances of 25x and above. The all-time low of the Misery Index from 1960 through September 2017 was February 1966 at 5.28%. The all-time high was in 1975 at 18.56%.
A year ago, the Misery Index was 6.74%. The index is down roughly -18% in the past twelve months and the S&P 500 is up 21%. For now, the index is low and continues to decline which is constructive for further stock price advances. In the coming months, it will be interesting to see if the Misery Index is able to drop to new all-time lows.
Source : delta market sentiment
IBD has this – “When it comes to overall market health, what’s interesting to note is that the market has moved from a high distribution-day count in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and overall healthy action in leading growth stocks to a low distribution-day count and suspect action in some leading growth stocks. Many leaders are still acting fine, while others have turned sluggish.”
It has to be of note Ladies and Gentlemen, fellow travelers that we have had 46 bullish weeks so far – NASDAQ has had 21+ %, DOW – 18.6 %, and S&P has had 15 % return
About 65% of market is moving above their 75 day Moving average!!
the famous DOJI occurred on June 12th 2017 – nothing but the the first candle in the first chart – then look at the trend!! Weekly is amazing
Now we know that price is the true north star. We react to the market – we let market show us in 2 charts what is going on. We don’t predict. We buy when the market is going up and sell when when market is going down. Period!
So i am on the long! there is a clear break to the upside occurred at the end of Sept 2017.
Happy trading and travelling
PS: i don’t give recomendations, and this is only my personal opnion.
what’s more at the top? More of the top.
Last week all the indices hit all time high. How far is far enough?
when P/E is constant, then the risk premium is constant.
P/E has been hovering for S&P Index around 20.5 for the last and half year (DEC 2015 to June 2017) . earning increased from 100 dollars to 116 dollars around 16%
So mostly the gain in S&P came from the gain in real earnings of the companies!
So assuming just the earning to grow by 10% (very reasonable..just the growth %) and P/E = 20.5 as constant
then S&P would be (116+10% of 116) * 20.5= 2615 – a gain of 144 points from today.
the leading economic indicators – % change has been positive for the last 10 months!
around 65 % of stock market is about its 75 days moving average.
Now value of companies according to the theory is based on discounted value of the cash flow. because of low interest rates companies can borrow much with little interest paid. Hence expansion, hence earnings growth!
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes