Where is the stock market now

The delta market sentiment indicator is at 19.6 currently.

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the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that closed below their own resepctive 50 days SMA has fallen to an extreme of 15 % (out of say 100 stocks, only 15 stocks are above their own 50 Days Simple Moving Average (SMA))

According to Delta newsletter – “Since January, 2009 through today, we have only had eight instances when the MSI declined below 20%.  Shown below is a chart of the MSI since January 2, 2009.  Buying the market when the MSI dropped below 20 previously during this bull cycle has benefitted patient investors willing to incur heightened market volatility”

When the Delta MSI drops below 10%, Delta’s MSI based strategies may buy stocks.  During the current bull cycle beginning in 2009, this has happened only twice.  Over the past 27 years, it has happened five times.  These times were:

  • August 1990
  • September 1998
  • July 2002
  • October – December 2008
  • August 2011

The chart below shows the price change in the S&P 500 from the closing monthly price when the MSI went below 10% to twelve months and three years later.  The chart does not include the additional benefit of dividends during the holding periods.

Be prepared to enter soon into the market

 

what’s going on in the market

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Friday Sept 28th around 10:00 am IST 00:30 am just past midnight New York time

today would be the last trading day of the month and also the last trading day off the quarter

Yesterday prices faded as the day ended. In the above chart $S5FI – The percentage of stocks in S&P 500 that are above their 50 days SMA…they have fallen the entire week!

18 points fall from August 29th from 73 to 55.

last time from June 12th to June 28th s&p 500 fell 83 points and $S5FI fell 21 points .

So that is a red flag

but the A/D line for NYSE actually went up

So i am little confused. Why did the market fade away so badly yesterday ? What are stocks falling below their 50 day SMA?

Now price is the true north star so

my decision  : I will continue to be long on QLD and I am also long on NQ

 

a good reversal in S&P 500

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Tuesday September 11th 2018 around 11:30 am IST around 2:00 am, Sept 12 New York

S&P 500 increased for the first tie in 6 days. the advance decline line A/D line had the first positive reversal – stocks up in higher volume for the first time in 6 days. – 1719 Stocks up in 1.46 Billion volume compared to 1061 stocks down in 1.17 billion.

Number of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 days moving average increased to 65.89 percent. – which is a good positive developer

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QLD Volume substandard with 990 K

Over all the market is still in uptread

Decision – I am continuing to participate in QLD

NQ – yesterday it was up and down – i stayed out

big picture for the week of September 4th

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Overall a green flag for uptrend this week. But before that the schools are back in US, end of labor day, back to schools for summer. Traders, investors and Institutions are back in full swing..

The news with tariffs and stuff has not really jittered the market. Lets looks at the big S&P 500 weekly chart

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what a wonderful uptrend!. Neither the S&P 500 nor NASDAQ nor NDX has broken below the 9 Week Exponential moving average. the above chart is brilliant and beautiful!

the Jan 2018 high of S&P 500 is around  2872  now recently we move 1.5 % above the January high and has very timidly retreated. it closed 2871 yesterday.

FFTY – the top growth stocks in the entire market has put in 1% yesterday.

NASDAQ lost 185 points this last week and is down 2.2 % for the week.

Market sentiment indicator – measuring from Thursday to Wednesday went down just 1 point to 62.3

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my only concern is the above chart – For 6 days it went down. yesterday it dropped 3.17 % points but look at the above chart a weekly uptrend from July 2nd 2018!

decision : stay in QLD and NDX but wait on NQ because of the volatility!

Look at chart below – what a wonderful chart – lowest unemployment ever!

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