slow burn up in crude

Crude Oil fantastically broke up yesterday. It shattered a 1 month ceiling and crossed up and above the 200 days SMA.

I’m long on crude, with a stop loss just below 60 dollars and sell limit order at 62.34.

Let’s look at the one month chart.  Screen Shot 2019-07-11 at 9.47.23 AM

as you can see the chart above Crude is at 1 month high and uncertainty between 55 and 60 is gone (i personally lost about 3 round trip trades and was stopped out..total loss about 120 ticks. But the big losses was kept at bay by keeping tight stop losses)

I am really tempted to increase my stop loss in this trade currently. Entered at 60.38 and because of this ‘Slow burn up’ in the below chart, i feel the next near term rally has started

Screen Shot 2019-07-11 at 9.47.56 AM

You see in the chart above for 7 days the movement has been sideways (forming a good support at 56.50 ), and then up. Why did i not enter at 57.00??  Two reasons – one, Stopped out 3 times. Two, the resistance of 60.00 was just too close.

So the stock market is up and sustained up. EURUSD went up 100 pips. Gold is up. Crude is up.

from the charts, by all counts (4 and counting), a near term rally has begun.

i am NQU19 long, CLU19 long, Long TQQQ. Gold – GCQ19 i’m waiting for 1425 to be taken out (I already have buy limit orders on it).

I have already taken 80 points profit on NQ. Reentered on an automatic buy limit order on Charles Schwab at 7959. Stop loss at 7910.

Happy travel trading!

 

 

why is beta not enough for the long run – 9,900 % in apple stock

i was listening to a wonderful IBD podcast. MarketSmith Senior Product Coach Scott St. Clair was candid, humorous, self-deprecating. The middle part of the talk focussed on human behaviors. (behavioral finance)

there were gems in it. One is the fidelity study.  here is the business insider article of September 2017 titled – Fidelity Investments Did A Study On Which Client Accounts Did Best And What They Found Was Hilarious

“They found that the best performing accounts were from investors who were DEAD! In second place were investors who had FORGOTTEN they had accounts at Fidelity.”

Scott says this (paraphrasing) : I had a client who died and the company policy was that i cannot touch – i cannot sell or add to his positions.

“He was stuck in all these great stocks, and he didn’t have me to get him out of them..wiggle him out because they were going up” (check the same interview of podcast at youtube here at 22:05)

thank you Scott for your honesty and humor.

Screen Shot 2019-07-06 at 10.36.37 AM

the red line is AMZN last 5 years. the blue line is TQQQ (triple NASDAQ 100), and the bottom is NASDAQ.

David Chung (@IBD_DChung)  from IBD says this says this “Judo masters begin not by learning how to throw, but how to fall. They practice this skill until it’s as natural as breathing. No matter how many times they’re flipped, they can rise to fight again.”

He goes on to say : “Highly successful stock pickers go through similar training: They must learn how to cut their losses short. This means selling a stock when it’s down 7% or 8% from your purchase price.”

 

What a stock market rally so far? Weekly review for week of April 1st – April 5th 2019

How do you know that the stock market is doing well so far?

Let’s look at the general market picture below

Screen Shot 2019-04-06 at 3.22.44 PM

we see the advanced decline line nicely surpassing the previous all times highs in the last one week!

what would some other sign be?

In the worst week for the top performing industry group (Software Group), it lost less than 1 % !!

Screen Shot 2019-04-06 at 3.19.52 PM

what about sectors, How did they do ?

Screen Shot 2019-04-06 at 3.20.05 PM

there has been nothing down – no sector was in the negative last 1 month and last 3 months !!

I am long on NQ and TQQQ

Have a wonderful weekend !!

 

the strongest group in the current rally

Since December 26th 2018 the boom in Software sector has been fantastic. The software sector and industry groups have been fantastic so far.

Let’s look at the following chart.

Screen Shot 2019-04-05 at 1.10.30 PM

So till wednesday it grew around 32 % !

they have been sell offs on March 4th and March 22nd and then yesterday April 4th 2019. But yesterday’s sell off was different.

On March 4th and 22nd there was market wide sell off. But yesterday there was just unloading of the top performing software stocks by Institutions for other pastures.!

lets look at 3 months performance of the sectors

Screen Shot 2019-04-05 at 1.16.03 PM

Information technology sector – went up 28.3% in three months – the next nearest one Industrials was about 6 % points below it. The sector went down by 0.44 %. an insignificant amount.

look at yesterday’s performance of Industry groups within Information technology Sector

Screen Shot 2019-04-05 at 2.00.38 PM

So all is well so far when it comes to non Computer sector/Software sector

Happy trading

i am still long on TQQQ and NQM19

 

Heikin- Ashi Candles – what are they saying about the market?

Heikin- Ashi Candles (H-A Candles) smooth out the rough edges and indicate if the patterns are continuing or they are just about to transition.

They are like regular candles but use averages. Something akin to the functioning of moving averages. I feel they are simple and effective. Why?

Let’s look at closing price on a H-A candle. It is average of high, low, open, close of the current time period. Isn’t that awesome! Why? because no matter what people say what they think, what the TV pundits think and say. No matter what – ALL INFORMATION IS IN THE PRICE. More so in the current world we live in – every information moves at speeds that was too much to even imagine for say Jesse Livermore – often quoted as the greatest speculator of all time.

Look what he says on page 11 of his own book under a pseudonym??

Screen Shot 2019-03-26 at 11.43.23 AM

So let’s smooth all all fluctuations and say what is the average closing price for today. How is it doing with respect with last few days.

let’s look at S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average ($S5FI). From 90 % of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 days moving averages it has fallen down to 60%. Basically the stocks are losing steam and falling off. This is invaluable information. Why? the best biggest companies are not being supported by biggest institutional monies and hedge funds and Pension funds like The California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) which has 300 plus billions in assets. Individual traders and speculators like you and me cannot match their dollars. We do not move the markets. We just follow the price.

As Jesse said – the tape does not concern itself with why and wherefore!

So last 3 weeks the stocks composing S&P 500 are falling off. So we do not enter into newer positions and take our profits. That is what i did in TQQQ and NQ yesterday. I closed all my positions and am sitting in cash now.

Screen Shot 2019-03-26 at 11.07.17 AM

Now let us look at TQQQ – the triple NASDAQ 100. It went up 94.6 % since the start of the rally low on December 26th 2018 till close of the market price of Thursday March 21st. it gave up 14 % last two days. So we exited to preserve our profits. (all regular candle prices not smoothened H-A candle)

Now why is this last two days different from say March 7th and 8th 2019  when they were similar declines?Screen Shot 2019-03-26 at 12.04.21 PM

March 7th and 8th – the price decline was 5.3 % or 2.77 dollars. on 6th the volume is well below the 50 days SMA of the volume and on 7th the decline in price was accompanied with just about average volume. IBD still had market in confirmed uptrend.

From 8th to 21st of march the market was going up BUT S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average ($S5FI) BARELY BUDGED it held at 71 %!! TQQQ went up by 20 % but the best stocks did not move up!

On 21st March at the climatic top the volume was just above average in TQQQ – around 19 million. the 50 days Average volume was 17.8 million.

the 7.1 % decline in the last 2 days. were in volume of 33 and 26 millions! which is to say 83% more volume than average on Friday 22nd March 2019 and then 30 % more yesterday. IBD changed its market outlook on Friday to market under pressure.

Number 1 : price in the only true north star

Number 2 : Preserve your capital at all costs

Number 3 : Preserve your profits.

Market climbs the wall of worry going up in an escalator or slowing trudging up. It falls down like a rock or a free fall elevator.

lets look at the 5 min intraday chart.

Screen Shot 2019-03-26 at 12.38.48 PM

7600 price seems to be a support. lets just wait and see.

Finally lets look at 5 days 60 Min H-A Candle chart of TQQQ.

Screen Shot 2019-03-26 at 12.43.08 PM

look at the bottom pane the big green volume candle bar and the values for that particular hour. Volume was 300 % more from 2-3 pm the day of Wednesday March 20th 2019 price change was 56 to 59.66 – 6.5 % But then look at all the high volume red candles  that followed the price decline.

So i am staying out of the market for now. Right from 3/22 and 3/25 10:00 am high volume price declines. So i get out of the way.

Happy patience and staying put for now!

 

Transition time????

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 10.52.43 AM

last 2 -3 days were very interesting. Yesterday S&P 500 dropped by 0.3 % but the number of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 days Simple Moving average (SMA). Last 5 trading days it dropped by around 9 points. Nothing serious but makes me cautious.

Russell 2000 closed below its 10 days SMA. It’s finding a touch resistance at 200 days SMA.

Let’s look at Heikin-Ashi chart for S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average ($S5FI)

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 11.03.42 AM

not good look – the number of stocks in S&P 500 are losing momentum and are falling below their 50 days SMA. about 21 percentage points from march 1st 2019.

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 11.11.28 AM

It’s in an amazing trend – not only there has been higher volume price increase in QQQ yesterday but volume increase was 50 percent above average!

lets look at 5 mins chart for NASDAQ composite

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 11.23.50 AM

just up and down and lots of volatility but the most important point is that the closing price of the day. Which is the most important price – its been going up since Friday of March 8th 2019 except for one day on 3/14/2019, which is last Thursday.

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 11.28.23 AM

Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 11.34.10 AM

for the 3rd day in a row TQQQ closed above the 200 days SMA!Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 9.29.20 AM

The only thing little bothersome is Russell 2000 has been falling in the last chart which is the ETF with volume

all the FAANG stocks are up – wonderfully yesterday. Netflix was a bumper. It went up 4.5%, up 16 + dollars !!!Screen Shot 2019-03-21 at 11.43.17 AM

So what is the conclusion? Price is the only true north star and it is up so I am long NQM19 and TQQQ.

Happy trading!!