process trumps results all the time

  • NASDAQ Composite’s closing day’s price is the most important price.
  • Market index itself will tell us the conditions of market.
  • Trend reversals or transition points is where maximum ROI is made.

I have heard that from FT 71 

Futures Trader 71 aka Morad Aksar. He is a well established day trader but i am not a day trader but i have learnt some tit bits from him.

Another important truism/maxim i have learnt in theory and practice is this : Preserve your capital at all costs. In theory i have learned it at Options Express 2 day courses with George Fontanills. Practically after losing much of my profits i learnt to add this : Preserve your profits at all costs too!

why? When we transition – right at transition times is when we hit Gold mine.

Let me explain : Now you see the NASDAQ daily chart. On December 24th 2019 we hit 6190 and 50 days Simple Moving average was 7164.  The difference of around 1000 points.

Since we know at this blog that the price is the only true North Star and we would have been in short position for this long. We expect the price to continue trending down till it does not.

Now next day we have December 26th, and we also know that the closing price is very very important and significant. All the billions and billions of dollars and savvy money managers and hedge fund gurus and Mutual funds all fight it out and finally come to the days end and a closing price. The most significant price for the day. December 26th it closed up around 361 points.

Has the trend reversed? We don’t know, but the wonderful big green candle catches our attentions since we are attended the heart beat of the market which is nothing but the index like NASDAQ Composite.

that is the first day of attempted rally. why ? the closing price was higher than the previous days closing price and by a whopper!

we wait and see and by Jan 4th after 7 trading days it is alright up by around 525 points from the low of the first day of attempted rally. It was day 7th follow through day of the attempted rally

System developed by William J. O’Neil to identify an important change in general market direction from a definite downtrend to a new uptrend.

A follow-through day occurs during a market correction when a major index closes significantly higher than the previous day, and in greater volume. It happens Day 4 or later of an attempted rally. Leading up to a follow-through day, an attempted rally takes place during a downtrend when a major index closes with a gain. The rally attempt continues intact as long as the index doesn’t make a new low.

Follow-through day variables include: an index closing sufficiently above 1% on increased volume, positive behavior of leading stocks, and improved market action regarding support vs. resistance levels. The most powerful follow-through days often happen Day 4 through Day 7 of an attempted rally.

In the wake of a follow-through day, the market should continue to add gains in strong volume, with breakouts by top stocks. This is further confirmation a new uptrend is underway.

Now we enter the market always always with a stop and right now the market is up 750 points from the entry.

happy trading!

 

 

 

What to make of the market?

This site’s philosophy is very simple. I feel (I hope I’m humbled by this ..or rather i hope I’m humbly starting this): This site’s philosophy is sublimely simple : Price is the only true north star. I want to simply mimic the price. Price is rising and i am buying. Price is falling and i am selling.

what i mean by that is this ?

Let me put it in a different way. Say you are conservative. Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole.

QQQ or the cubes which track the NASDAQ – 100 has a beta of 1.10 ..roughly it mirror the NASDAQ – 100. AMZN , Amazon has a beta of 1.71.Netflix NFLX 1.53.

there are ETFs dedicated to High Beta or it’s implications – momentum stocks!

Now QLD , which daily doubles the NASDAQ – 100 has a beta of 2.25 !!

Say Jan 4th 2019 when the market started its rally you bought 100 shares of QLD for 68 dollars.  On Feb  6th 2019 it hit a resistance at 200 day SMA and then next day you sell at market open (it confirmed because there was a gap down). You sold at 79.

So you went in with 6800 dollars and now you have 7900 dollars.

Now if you look at market and it is dropping on high volume end of the day prices you know the market is in downswing. Say it drops down to 70 USD, and you get in based on simple end of day price action. Now you have 112.8 shares!!

See you accumulated assets slowly! In QLD or for that matter NFLX or AMZN wealth is accumulated by accumulating shares by being in cash when the market is falling!! and getting in when the simple price volume actions says the trend is reversing from going down to going up.

Buy at the top sell at the bottom.

Profit in assets are only made at the price you buy not at the price you sell. So you go long (buy) at the beginning or there about of an uptrend or go short (sell) at beginning or thereabouts of a downtrend. Since price is the only true North Star. One ‘exits’ at the top or bottom to make true profit and to accumulate assets. In both cases – long or short – you are buying low and selling high. THIS DOES NOT MEAN YOU ARE ACCUMULATING ASSETS AS PRICE IS FALLING. In fact it is exactly opposite to it. Accumulating assets as prices are falling is buying high and selling low ( you sell low because you can’t bear the pain of loss). You always accumulate assets when price is rising.  You exit assets when it’s price is falling.

Happy trading folks!

 

 

qld – double nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq-100 Index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on The Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The Index reflects companies across major industry groups including computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology. It does not contain securities of financial companies including investment companies.

Now QLD is proshares ETF. This leveraged ProShares ETF seeks a return that is 2x the return of its underlying benchmark (target) for a single day, as measured from one NAV calculation to the next.

Now compounding is amazing concept in a up trending market!cdd8afea0d4bfb10c19630c80e8d842b

in the chart below the red line is QLD ..In 5 years its up 216 % compared to less than 92 % growth for NASDAQ -100 !

 

Screen Shot 2019-02-06 at 5.41.13 PM

Happy trading !

 

 

 

 

 

Nasdaq all the way

Now there has been new highs since December 26th 2018. Market has been up and this rally has been going on for 27 days !!

NASDAQ faces a new test shortly – 7450 to 7500 is a critical resistance. Currently it is around 7350.  it is facing in 100 points a century figure and 200 day Simple moving average (SMA)

87.2 % of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 days SMA. NASDAQ is about 400 points above their 50 days SMA.

High volume selling in NASDAQ and S&P 500 is just 1 in the last 27 days !

the industry group of Enterprise Software is up 30 +% in 2019.

PAYC has shot up 5 dollars yesterday and it’s EPS is due on Tuesday Feb 5th 2019

the top 5 stocks in this group are

  • 1
    CRM SALESFORCE.COM INC
  • 2
    FIVN FIVE9 INC
  • 3
    NOW SERVICENOW INC
  • 4
    PAYC PAYCOM SOFTWARE INC
  • 5
    PCTY PAYLOCITY HOLDING CORP

the beast is rousing itself up

it is a big beast – there are big big players with billions of dollars trading the market every day

For Jan 30, 2019

Share Volume Dollar Volume
Total Volume: 2,567,771,292 $129,267,339,122
Block Volume: 507,812,429

 

Number of Issues: 3,397
Number of MPs: 428
Total Trades: 13,602,488
Block Trades: 13,278

Now for small time folk like me, the deluge of money and trading will overwhelm me. that is why i will not day trade. 2.5 billion shares are traded and i am not capable of knowing what is going to happen because my position can be wiped out in a min.

also total dollar volume is 129 billion

that is why end of the day price is so very important . why ? Because after all the fighting and back and forth snd trying to decide on the tug of war and over and over again money and stocks trading hands. at last they come to a market agreed price.

this is the price market has agreed, P/E ratios or sales figures or Forward looking EPS etc all the knowledge is finally found in that price. All the billions of dollars of super computers and auto trading and algorithms and quants have come up with this price.

 

and i should respect it.

2700 was a strong century figure resistance for S&P 500 and then for NASDAQ it is 7000-7200.

On higher volume both crossed that number yesterday at the end of the month

screenshot2019-02-01at11.49.46amscreenshot2019-02-01at11.49.30am

i am long on QLD and AMZN call.

 

Amazon physical stores sales no one is talking about. AMZN much better than advertisng sales

Summary : with no growth at all we can expect a revenue of 75.97 – 79.85 Billion dollars for Q4 of 2018.

amazon AMZN is reporting its Q4 2018 quarterly report at market close on Thursday January 31st 2019.  look at the below table found here . this is from form 10-Q found on page 20. this below is table 1 in this post.

screen shot 2019-01-30 at 12.18.53 pm

For Physical stores line number 2 in 2017 for both 3 months ending and 9 months ending Septemnber sales were 1,276 Million dollars. Why? On page 4 of the annual report

“Our business is affected by seasonality, which historically has resulted in higher sales volume during our fourth quarter, which ends December 31. We recognized 33%, 32%, and 34% of our annual revenue during the fourth quarter of 2015, 2016, and 2017. Fourth quarter 2017 results include revenue attributable to Whole Foods Market, which we acquired on August 28, 2017.”

Now look at Net sales for the year ending 2017 in the following table found here on page 69 of form 10K

this below is table 2 in this post

screen shot 2019-01-30 at 12.34.53 pm

In the above table, it would not escape your attention that they had 0 dollars sales in physical stores in 2015 and 2016 and year ending 2017 it is 5,798 Million dollars.

Now in the first table by the 9 months ending September 2018 the sales is 12,824 Million  US Dollars

Just 9 months sales increased 121 % growth! this is better than the advertising segment growth (the other ) which is just 6,720 million from table 1

2015 to 2016 – the other advertisement segment grew 72.5 % and then from 2017-2018 it grew by 57.7 % but for first 9 month of 2018 it grew by 44.4 % compared to entire 2017.

Physical stores sales for Holiday season 2018 is going to add billions of dollars since amazon released here

Amazon today announced a record-breaking holiday season thanks to its customers all around the world, with more items ordered worldwide than ever before. Amazon customers shopped at record levels from a wide selection of products across every department, discovering top holiday gifts and trending products offered at deep discounts and low prices. Some of the best-selling products this season included, all-new Echo Dot, L.O.L. Surprise! Glam Glitter Series Doll, fashion items from Carhartt, and Bose QuietComfort Wireless Headphones, among others.

So from table 1 we have net sales for 9 months ending 2018 is 160,504 million US dollars. Now last quarter revenue was 56,576. let’s just for fun add them both. we get revenue based on no growth whatsoever 217,080 million us dollars. Now if around 35 % of annual revenue is got from 4th quarter. then without any growth Q4 revenue would be 35 % of 217, 080 which is equal to 75,978 million us dollars!

Now lets assume very reasonably for revenue growth comparing Q4 quarter 2017 to Q4 quarter 2018 of a growth of 32 % (Q4 2017 to Q4 2016 was 38.3 %) then we get revenue  of 79.86 Billion in Q4 of 2018

 

 

 

 

the behavior of the beast

In the mind, as in life, it is always 20-20 looking back (hindsight is always clearer). In Trading the philosophy of this blog is always 20-20.

the closing price itself is the most significant. Why? yesterday (again 20-20) is a prime example. NASDAQ opened 106 points down – around 1.4 %. went down 124 points compared to the previous day’s close (1.73%) but then closed at 7085 about 12 points higher than it opened. Look at the following 5 min chart. It is range bound and closed at upper part of the range.

screen shot 2019-01-29 at 10.41.26 am

Now look at the chart below. It is S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average ($S5FI)

screen shot 2019-01-29 at 10.53.59 am

on 1/22/2018 this very reliable portent dropped by more than 11%. that was a good scare. Now on that day (Tuesday, right after MLK holiday) NASDAQ dropped by 136 points (1.9%)

screen shot 2019-01-29 at 11.05.50 am

Now look at the behavior – both days. the charts indicate the behavior. on 1/22 clear down trend and 136 point drop and $S5FI dropped 11 + % points. that is why IBD said on 1/23 day end – “Stock market bulls breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday as Wall Street endured another whipsaw session.”

Yesterday though the drop was significant. the volume was lower compared to 1/25 (Friday). it was a range bound day and closed at upper end of the range. and $S5FI dropped by only 1.6 % points.

and also both yesterday and on 1/22 the volume fell on both NASDAQ and NYSE exchanges.

another good sign for NASDAQ is that the candles are bouncing above their 10 days SMA.

as a side-note : NASDAQ volume is about 2.4 billion and the dollar volume is 120 Billion daily!! Now we let the Big dogs like pension funds, and mutual funds and Quant automatic computerized trading, ETF managers, hedge funds play it out in the day.

We are concerned only with end of the day price and the behavior during the day and psychological important Moving averages like 50 Days and 200 days. Somehow this along with major support and resistances. It gives us great relief and mental rigor when we avoid the fight during the day. 

I am continuing to be in the market. Long QLD.

Happy trading !