USA is doing great!

usa

For 38 weeks in a row – straight weeks, Since Donald Trump was elected the 45th U.S. President the market has been in a bullish trend. That is it has been around 269 days of relentless bull (a very, very mature bull market though).

Many people got left out, because they predicted the market collapse. The market is a leading indicator of the overall health of the economy of the USA

S@P gained around 18%

DOW gained around 21%

NASDAQ gained around 23%

41 times DOW hit new highs!! 41 times!

Monday August 21, 2017 is a coast to caost solar eclipse and some people as usual are predicting dire straits for USA. They may or may not be right. But as of today USA is doing great!!

But for the naysayers

Here is good news too

Electronics for Imaging – EFII, collapsed 41% in thousands of times more volume than average. This might be a time to time to buy Put Options. Remember Enron accounting irregularities! – Thursday was quarterly results and they failed to release it , citing issues over revenue recognition!!

Applied Optoelectronics – AAOI, plummeted 27%. The maker of optical-communications devices forecast current-quarter revenue that was well below estimates. Before Friday’s drop, Applied had best-possible IBD ratings. Its fiber optics industry group was ranked No. 1 of 197.

Trivago- TRVG, collapsed 18% to a three-month low after the travel-booking company reported loss in the quarter.

Impinj- PI, skidded 23% in more than seven times its usual volume. The tracking-chip company beat Q2 sales and earnings views, but gave a soft outlook.

apple strikes again – up by around 5%

apple strikes again august 2nd 2017

By 1 pm today – the NASDAQ dropped about 31 points (the futures were up 45 points at one time last night). That shows to us a critical point that i have observed over many months now: stocks don’t always follow the futures.

Apple earned $1.67 a share, (up 18% YOY); sales : $45.4 billion (up 7% 3 months) That was well above what analysts expected Apple to earn and for sales ($1.57 a share on sales of $44.89 billion).

Volume was lower on the NYSE compared with the same time Noon EST, but higher on the Nasdaq, (The most intense trading in Apple shares — running about 5 times greater than the 50 days moving average of volume. Losing stocks led winners by 12-to-7 on the NYSE and by about 13-to-5 on the Nasdaq.

Solar energy stocks, the No. 1 industry group out of the 197 that IBD tracks, was Wednesday’s worst-performing

First day of August – market feels tame

Weekly chart on the right appears to be forming a top. but it is clearly in an uptrend

daily chart (on the left) – good chart damage a few days ago in higher volume

Major Indexes rose only 0.2 % – 0.3 %. Small caps ran up – Russel went up 0.2%

On NASDAQ – volume – a good indicator of institutional buying is roughly even compared to Monday.

The best Industry group today is automation industry – up 4.1% – supported by CGNX  – up 11%

Consumer loan, oil field services, scientific and measuring gear, heavy construction and outsourcing companies also outperformed well and grew more than 2% today.

 

A view to a kill!

COMP SHOT JULY 24TH 2017

what’s more at the top? More of the top.

Last week all the indices hit all time high.  How far is far enough?

when P/E is constant, then the risk premium is constant.

P/E has been hovering for S&P Index around 20.5 for the last and half year (DEC 2015 to June 2017) .   earning increased from 100 dollars to 116 dollars around 16%

So mostly the gain in S&P came from the gain in real earnings of the companies!

So assuming just the earning to grow by 10% (very reasonable..just the growth %) and P/E = 20.5 as constant

then S&P would be (116+10% of 116)  * 20.5= 2615 – a gain of 144 points from today.

the leading economic indicators – % change has been positive for the last 10 months!

around 65 % of stock market is about its 75 days moving average.

Now value of companies according to the theory is based on discounted value of the cash flow. because of low interest rates companies can borrow much with little interest paid. Hence expansion, hence earnings growth!

Happy trading!

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” –  John Maynard Keynes