5 days of stalling and no progress
2 days of high volume selling
100 points loss in 2 days in high volume
Top leaders down in high volume
( first photo source : trading view )
FFTY etf a proxy for top 50 beat stocks in the market down by 2%
For the first time since almost 30 years – the entire world is seeing +positive grown for 12 months!
Of the top ten largest corporations in the world in 2009, only one was a technology company – Microsoft. Today, seven of the ten largest companies worldwide are technology companies including Apple, Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon, Alibaba and Tencent. The shift to a technology dominated economy provides a boost to earnings growth rates.
Over a fifth of the S&P 500 is represented by the technology sector. Consensus revenue growth for the technology sector in 2018 is 9.4% which should drive 35% earnings growth. In the past month, the revenue growth forecast was revised up from 8.7% to the current 9.4%.
The earnings per share for the MSCI AC World Index (ACWI) is above $30. In the U.S., the S&P 500 consensus earnings estimate is expected to advance by about 11% year-over-year on revenue growth of about 5% off of record levels reached in 2017.
If the P/E remains constant as it has for the past two years, the S&P 500 should be up in-line with earnings or about 11%.
Source : Delta market sentiment
this year there has been over 60 times that NASDAQ hit high.
this week begins with 6th week of record high.
above is a weekly close for QLD.
QLD which is 2X Nasdaq 100 appears to have hit a plateau 2 weeks in a row 10/16 and then last few days.
last 4 trading sessions NASDAQ hit 3 distribution days – which is concerning.
On 5/29 week QLD closed 62.65, where as the MA 20 Weeks was 53.67 – 8.98 dollars difference! about 14 %. Then it dropped by 6.3 dollars (around 10%)
The situtation is not that bad now – the difference between the two (MA and the price ) is about 4 %
Now for the current scenario – the ATR 20 DAYS is 2.43.
So lets wait and see. No clear sell as yet
IBD has this – “When it comes to overall market health, what’s interesting to note is that the market has moved from a high distribution-day count in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq and overall healthy action in leading growth stocks to a low distribution-day count and suspect action in some leading growth stocks. Many leaders are still acting fine, while others have turned sluggish.”
It has to be of note Ladies and Gentlemen, fellow travelers that we have had 46 bullish weeks so far – NASDAQ has had 21+ %, DOW – 18.6 %, and S&P has had 15 % return
About 65% of market is moving above their 75 day Moving average!!
the famous DOJI occurred on June 12th 2017 – nothing but the the first candle in the first chart – then look at the trend!! Weekly is amazing
Now we know that price is the true north star. We react to the market – we let market show us in 2 charts what is going on. We don’t predict. We buy when the market is going up and sell when when market is going down. Period!
So i am on the long! there is a clear break to the upside occurred at the end of Sept 2017.
Happy trading and travelling
PS: i don’t give recomendations, and this is only my personal opnion.
Weekly chart on the right appears to be forming a top. but it is clearly in an uptrend
daily chart (on the left) – good chart damage a few days ago in higher volume
Major Indexes rose only 0.2 % – 0.3 %. Small caps ran up – Russel went up 0.2%
On NASDAQ – volume – a good indicator of institutional buying is roughly even compared to Monday.
The best Industry group today is automation industry – up 4.1% – supported by CGNX – up 11%
Consumer loan, oil field services, scientific and measuring gear, heavy construction and outsourcing companies also outperformed well and grew more than 2% today.