When the market fell on Monday, Look at the first chart – how much percentage of S&P 500 stocks fell below their 50 Day SMA? Just minuscule!
the second chart is the ETF FFTY is top 50 growth stocks in the market. It is holding well.
NFLX went up well in high volume on Monday.
Decision : I’ll continue to be in the market and am long on QLD and NQ.
- NDX 3 months daily chart comfortably above the 9 EMA daily (7519), currently at 7545.50, about 25 points above 9 EMA Daily.
- on Friday NDX did not give up so much of any of Thursday’s gains.
- 2 red flags on QLD Wednesday and Friday last week 12th and 14th September – Green price candles on Red volume in Heiken – Ashi chart. good volume 1.39 and 1.27 million.
- ES broke all short term nasty resistances at 2890 and 2895.
- good sign – NYSE advance decline line 5 days of increase. 1433 stocks up in 1.58 million volume and 1344 down in 1.27 million volume.
- Accumulation Distribution – C- on S&P 500 and B- on NASDAQ.
- Market sentiment indicator – since Thursday (sept 5th) and Friday (sept 6th) was big fall in the market the sentiment indicator went down from 62.3 to 56.1.
- very good sign – the above chart – the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day SMA has gone up top 68.45 !
decision – i am going to stay in the market.
Thursday, September 13th 2018 at 8:20 am Indian Standard tine and around 10:51 pm September 12th in NYC
it is a third day of bottoming for NASDAQ.
NASDAQ lost almost 1.1 % yesterday at one point of time then recovered well with a loss of little more than 0.2 % in slightly higher volume – green flag.
A/D line for NYSE has actually improved – 1554 stocks up in 1.95 billion volume and 1226 stocks down in 1.19 billion volume. Good up volume almost double then down volume and majority of stocks up. Green flag
3rd day S&P 500 going up and that too in higher volume.
S&P 500 stocks percentage above their 50 day SMA has improved to 65.14
and FFTY actually went up
decision – I am staying in the market and NQ
Wednesday, September 12th 2018, around 8:30 am Hyderabad, India; and around 11:00 pm Wednesday, September 12th 2018 New York Time
futures before opening did not look nice…NDX opened lower about 40 points! but immediately started going up and up 100+ points at close. That is a good upswing!
NDX solid support and bounce above 9 Week EMA. FFTY – top 50 growth stocks in the market good bounce above 9 Day EMA!.
Accumulation distribution line for NYSE – not as good as yesterday, but 1430 stocks up (majority of stocks) in good volume of 1.56 billion (better volume than yesterday)
most spectacular advance was NDX – low of 7401 and closed around 7507!
only red flag was the breath – IBD calls it ‘curiously soft’ ! Decliners led advancers by 15-to-13 in NASDAQ. Well there is one other red flag – % of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 day SMA declined by not that much to 64.55
One another thing – Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google is 26 % of NASDAQ! Now these stocks are institutional darlings and heavy weight!. How are the institutions treating them ?
decision : I’m staying in QLD
and i am long on NQ 1 Contract
Tuesday September 11th 2018 around 11:30 am IST around 2:00 am, Sept 12 New York
S&P 500 increased for the first tie in 6 days. the advance decline line A/D line had the first positive reversal – stocks up in higher volume for the first time in 6 days. – 1719 Stocks up in 1.46 Billion volume compared to 1061 stocks down in 1.17 billion.
Number of S&P 500 stocks above their 50 days moving average increased to 65.89 percent. – which is a good positive developer
QLD Volume substandard with 990 K
Over all the market is still in uptread
Decision – I am continuing to participate in QLD
NQ – yesterday it was up and down – i stayed out
Current market participation : unfortunately because of 12 hours time difference between bali (I am currently in Bali Indonesia ) and NY, I am currently not participating in the market. Timing is critical during breakouts and It is sleeping time here when market opens in NYC! If COMP moves up by 100 points than that is added to the risk if the breakout is missed.
This below info is for the readers.
Nasdaq hit all time high. March 12th week and April 2nd week crash stabilized the next 4 weeks. April 30th it retook the 9 week Moving average
From May 7th to yesterday the hole which was dug the market came out
Look at this chart below FFTY the top 50 growth stocks in the entire market
It just topping and topping
NYSE’s advance-decline line has now risen for five weeks in a row.
S&P 500 spent four solid weeks above its 50-day moving average. That’s the longest period of time since January. Technically speaking, that’s good. It means the rally is accelerating.
Accumulation/Distribution Rating the Nasdaq scored a B-, much improved from a D since May 10th uptrend start
And finally 65% of all stocks in S&P 500 are above their 50 day simple moving average
So Market hit a top. It is very likely to go up further
Happy trading !
Market analysis weekend of May 12 2018
The way employed here is always reactive not predictive. We do not forecast we just react to the market. For 6 weeks it indicated to us to be out in the sidelines. We look at the major indexes at the end of the day for 10-25 mins and based on price and volume we see if we enter or exit.
Price is the only true North Star. Volume indicates the commitment by 100s of institutional buyers with total of billions of dollars to buy.
#1 and only priority is preserving our capital at all costs check our method how and why
Market is in rally and things are looking good but I will explain why we should still wait 1 more week or less
53.4% of stocks in S&P 500 are above their 100 day SMA (say there are 100 stocks in entire market 53 stocks are above their price averaged over their last 100 days) 1st chart
This week delta market sentiment turned bullish after 6 weeks of bearishness
The Nasdaq closed above its 50-day moving average for a sixth session in a row. The S&P 500 did the same for a third session in a row.
The Nasdaq needs only a 1.3% advance to bump up against the 7500 price level. But the S&P 500 needs a 2.7% gain to test the 2800 level.
Dow 25000 is quite nearby
Accumulation distribution (A rating is top and E ratings is bottom ) for S&P is still D
NYSE advance decline line has made a new high. Above chart 2 . But you see, only on May 9th on above average volume with solid volume increase did S&P clear the 50 day Simple moving average (SMA )
It’s good to be cautious and not jump in.. we need to let it play. All the indexes are close to the Previous all time high potential resistances. Things just began to look up and this coming week will let us know