What a stock market rally so far? Weekly review for week of April 1st – April 5th 2019

How do you know that the stock market is doing well so far?

Let’s look at the general market picture below

Screen Shot 2019-04-06 at 3.22.44 PM

we see the advanced decline line nicely surpassing the previous all times highs in the last one week!

what would some other sign be?

In the worst week for the top performing industry group (Software Group), it lost less than 1 % !!

Screen Shot 2019-04-06 at 3.19.52 PM

what about sectors, How did they do ?

Screen Shot 2019-04-06 at 3.20.05 PM

there has been nothing down – no sector was in the negative last 1 month and last 3 months !!

I am long on NQ and TQQQ

Have a wonderful weekend !!

 

what a bang to start the 2nd Quarter in the market!

Screen Shot 2019-04-02 at 12.31.11 PMScreen Shot 2019-04-02 at 12.33.33 PM

IBD 50 index  is an index of 50 top performing growth stocks in the world with high spectacular momentum and top line (top 1%) of fundamentals.

As the market is picking up steam growth stocks lead it – and IBD 50 Index has been picking up. it just cleared its 200 days SMA and has been going up steadily last 3 days.

One positive yesterday is the OBV for TQQQ

Screen Shot 2019-04-02 at 12.59.25 PM

Look at the chart below

Screen Shot 2019-04-02 at 1.15.15 PM

the OBV is approaching very close to the the march 2019 high – and this is just 1st day of trading for 2nd quarter of 2019 !

I am long on NQ and TQQQ!

happy trading !

happy traveling also !

 

weekly stock market review as of Week ending Friday March 15th 2019

barchart sectors 5 days performance as of Closing Friday March 15th 2019Screen Shot 2019-03-18 at 12.54.55 PMfidelity end of 5 days as of Friday March 15th 2019

the top 5 sectors closed at the week’s highs. IWM – Russell 2000 ETF after last weeks red candle and down week has been picking up and again this week might test the 50 days Simple moving average (SMA).

according to IBD “The Nasdaq sprinted 0.8%, leading the market largely on strength in semiconductor stocks. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average each added 0.5%. The small-cap Russell 2000 rose nearly 0.3%. Volume rose sharply due to the simultaneous expiration of options and futures.”

IBD continues “During the week, leadership was broadly based. A dozen and a half groups scored weekly gains of 5% or better, according to preliminary data. They included medical stocks, retail, tobacco, semiconductors, computers, oil and transportation ships.

Note the variety: This is not a narrowly based uptrend, and that’s good news. Bulls prefer diversified leadership because it protects the indexes against one-off outcomes.

The S&P 500 index and Nasdaq composite recouped the prior week’s losses and hit their best levels of the current stock market rally, climbing 2.9% and 3.8%, respectively, for the week.”

Overall the market is in good health. Small caps are rising, and most importantly growth stocks are behaving extremely well.

Screen Shot 2019-03-18 at 1.23.23 PM

happy trading!!

 

Palo Alto Networks (PANW); Why price is the true north star

Palo Alto Networks is a super high flying stock. It is a sector leader, it is in IBD 20 big cap growth stock, and in the top 50 growth stocks in the USA.

It jumped on earnings 20 dollars on 2/25/2019. By yesterday by 4 trading days it lost about 20 dollars. Why?

there was no bad news, market was not overly selling away. So we do not know. But price does have all the info that we need to trade!

We do not know why sometimes. But what does that matter!

Cut your looses short and move on. I did that and sold on March 1st and went long on QLD. Why? because the market is in uptrend.

Screen Shot 2019-03-06 at 12.30.59 PM

pause in the market

In the previous post  i had confidently declared that there would be a 100 + points jump in NASDAQ. The market remains irrational as long as i remain solvent. 🙂

NASDAQ fell yesterday ending an eight trading streak.

So, i cut my looses. Closed Options positions on ANET and TWLO. exited from NQH19. I am still long QLD because the market is still in uptrend. But i reduced my exposure to prevent further losses.  The reason i am long ETF QLD is that, instances of extreme professional selling remain sparse. As the Market Pulse shows, the S&P 500 shows just two days of distribution. And neither down day (Feb. 7, down 0.9% and Feb. 14, off 0.3%) was especially strong. (IBD)

IBD says this “The current stock market rally ran into some resistance Thursday, with the Nasdaq composite sinking 0.4%, back below its 200-day line. The S&P 500 index lost 0.35%, staying above its 200-day line. The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq and Dow Jones, which slid 0.4%, are all struggling around their short-term peaks of Dec. 3. High-level China trade talks resumed Thursday, with more reports of progress. But the current stock market rally has run up for nearly two months, in part on China trade deal hopes. The Nasdaq just ended an eight-session win streak.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see the current stock market rally pause or pull back for more than a couple of days. So watch your overall portfolio exposure. Don’t let double-digit winners turn into losses and be ready to cut losses short.”

Happy trading !

I have started posting on seeking alpha also

here is the article

https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/194086-larrry1/5273849-pause-market

the beast is rousing itself up

it is a big beast – there are big big players with billions of dollars trading the market every day

For Jan 30, 2019

Share Volume Dollar Volume
Total Volume: 2,567,771,292 $129,267,339,122
Block Volume: 507,812,429

 

Number of Issues: 3,397
Number of MPs: 428
Total Trades: 13,602,488
Block Trades: 13,278

Now for small time folk like me, the deluge of money and trading will overwhelm me. that is why i will not day trade. 2.5 billion shares are traded and i am not capable of knowing what is going to happen because my position can be wiped out in a min.

also total dollar volume is 129 billion

that is why end of the day price is so very important . why ? Because after all the fighting and back and forth snd trying to decide on the tug of war and over and over again money and stocks trading hands. at last they come to a market agreed price.

this is the price market has agreed, P/E ratios or sales figures or Forward looking EPS etc all the knowledge is finally found in that price. All the billions of dollars of super computers and auto trading and algorithms and quants have come up with this price.

 

and i should respect it.

2700 was a strong century figure resistance for S&P 500 and then for NASDAQ it is 7000-7200.

On higher volume both crossed that number yesterday at the end of the month

screenshot2019-02-01at11.49.46amscreenshot2019-02-01at11.49.30am

i am long on QLD and AMZN call.

 

the behavior of the beast

In the mind, as in life, it is always 20-20 looking back (hindsight is always clearer). In Trading the philosophy of this blog is always 20-20.

the closing price itself is the most significant. Why? yesterday (again 20-20) is a prime example. NASDAQ opened 106 points down – around 1.4 %. went down 124 points compared to the previous day’s close (1.73%) but then closed at 7085 about 12 points higher than it opened. Look at the following 5 min chart. It is range bound and closed at upper part of the range.

screen shot 2019-01-29 at 10.41.26 am

Now look at the chart below. It is S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average ($S5FI)

screen shot 2019-01-29 at 10.53.59 am

on 1/22/2018 this very reliable portent dropped by more than 11%. that was a good scare. Now on that day (Tuesday, right after MLK holiday) NASDAQ dropped by 136 points (1.9%)

screen shot 2019-01-29 at 11.05.50 am

Now look at the behavior – both days. the charts indicate the behavior. on 1/22 clear down trend and 136 point drop and $S5FI dropped 11 + % points. that is why IBD said on 1/23 day end – “Stock market bulls breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday as Wall Street endured another whipsaw session.”

Yesterday though the drop was significant. the volume was lower compared to 1/25 (Friday). it was a range bound day and closed at upper end of the range. and $S5FI dropped by only 1.6 % points.

and also both yesterday and on 1/22 the volume fell on both NASDAQ and NYSE exchanges.

another good sign for NASDAQ is that the candles are bouncing above their 10 days SMA.

as a side-note : NASDAQ volume is about 2.4 billion and the dollar volume is 120 Billion daily!! Now we let the Big dogs like pension funds, and mutual funds and Quant automatic computerized trading, ETF managers, hedge funds play it out in the day.

We are concerned only with end of the day price and the behavior during the day and psychological important Moving averages like 50 Days and 200 days. Somehow this along with major support and resistances. It gives us great relief and mental rigor when we avoid the fight during the day. 

I am continuing to be in the market. Long QLD.

Happy trading !