Market overview for Tuesday March 12th 2019

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QQQ the cubes representing NASDAQ 100

this month is the 20th anniversary of Invesco QQQ, its top-performing large-cap growth ETF that tracks innovative companies included in the Nasdaq-100 Index. Launched on March 10, 1999, QQQ offers investors access to global growth companies, excluding the securities of financial companies.

QQQ is the sixth largest ETF listed in the US with $66 billion in assets under management and one of the longest performance histories available in an ETF.

It is amazing for the individual investors. it went up 500% last 10 years. It closed at 30 in March 2009 and this march of 2019 it is at 176.

Mining Gold silver and gems industry group is the top performer on Tuesday. The best YTD is energy solar companies, with 39% gain so far.

SOXX ETF and IGV Software ETF has lots of influence on performance of NASDAQ – 100.

IGV is up 23.4 % this rally starting December 26th last year. IGV is up 29.6 %. NDX – nasdaq 100 is up 19%.

NASDAQ composite’s volume was below average yesterday with 2.1 billion shares traded.   it went up around 0.44%. The best part is that it surpassed the closing price of Monday March 4th 2019 which resulted in a 5 day pullback.

IBD says this – “The tech-fortified Nasdaq composite gained 0.4% on Tuesday. It continued to gnaw away at the constructive pullback of 4.1% seen over a five-session selling streak that ended Friday. At 7591, the leading index for growth stocks is still enjoying one of its strongest advances in any quarter in recent history, up 14.4% since Jan. 1”

Yesterday’s low of NASDAQ did not touch any of the previous day’s price which is fantastically bullish.

the small caps ISHARES Russell 2000 ETF IWM did not show any direction yesterday and was very tepid

 

 

 

Palo Alto Networks (PANW); Why price is the true north star

Palo Alto Networks is a super high flying stock. It is a sector leader, it is in IBD 20 big cap growth stock, and in the top 50 growth stocks in the USA.

It jumped on earnings 20 dollars on 2/25/2019. By yesterday by 4 trading days it lost about 20 dollars. Why?

there was no bad news, market was not overly selling away. So we do not know. But price does have all the info that we need to trade!

We do not know why sometimes. But what does that matter!

Cut your looses short and move on. I did that and sold on March 1st and went long on QLD. Why? because the market is in uptrend.

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market is still not out of woods

last week, the day after Christmas we have had the best one day show in about 10 years in the market. But it was not convincing, why? because there was so small rise in the number os stocks going above the 50 days SMA in S&P 500. On the big day it went up by 3.39 which is insignificant compared to the drops (look at the big red candle o Dec 4th – one day drop of 23%!!)

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also checking QLD – we see that on the same close at 12/20 the OBV was 56 million and on 12/26 the OBV was 53 million. this is divergence and hence the market is going to go down further.

on the COMP 6630 is the next resistance (weekly low on the week of Feb 5th 2018)

One positive thing is the DMSI – quoting them “The Delta Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) declined to 7.5% this week.  The range on the Delta MSI is from 0% to 100%.  A 7.5% reading is very low and a sub-10% reading has only occurred during four periods (including this week) in the past 15 years (a longer history is shown this week instead of the usual 12 month review).  Historically, the stock market has shown strong performance over the next twelve months post a sub-10% reading.”

Market weekend review week of Sept 17th 2018

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looking at the big picture of weekly chart we see that it is  good picture

trading what we see rather than what we think is key. the chart is explaining to us that the price action is good and majority of stocks are above their 50 days SMA in S&P 500.

1 red flags though. QLD daily in H-A price charts – it has a 3rd red volume bar on a green candle stick. but the volume is less than 1 million.

NASDAQ is down 2 % off its all time high. NYSE Advance Decline line A-D line, which is a breath indicator, is slightly below its all time high.

Market sentiment indicator is up for the week 56.9.

Decision : I am still long on QLD and NQ.

unchanged Yom Kippur

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market remains unchanged. 65.27 % of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 Days SMA.

Look at the chart above – QLD is in candle sticks weekly 2 years chart

IGV is software setor ETF and XLV is health care sector – QLD is up 124 % and

IGV – 76 % and XLV 30%

Nothing beats QLD

Decision : I will continue to be long on QLD and NQ

good fall in the market, 2nd in less than 25 days

today is : Thur September 6th 2018 around 9:30 am Hyderabad, India. Time in New York City : 00:08 am on Thursday September 6th 2018

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well them days!

a good pull back put some breaks and exits some people.. yesterday a good bounce off 22 SMA for QLD and NDX is a good sign

never the less the high volume sell off of last 25 -30 trading days has gone up to 5 for the entire market. the +1.2 % sell off in NDX had first occurred on August 15th and then just yesterday.

Now its the 5th continuous decline in S&P last 5 trading days but there is a silver lining. the accumulation distribution line A-D line has flattened with 1533 stocks down in 1.50 Billion volume and 1258 stocks up in 1.6 billion volume (yesterday was 990 stocks up in less than billion volume)

QLD has a clear slicing of 9 EMA on daily chart on higher volume – 517 K volume.

Now look at FFTY below – the leading growth stocks ETF. What a bounce above 22 day SMA and it closed just below the  9 EMA!

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decision : stay in QLD.

for NQ As soon as euro market is opening it is falling

currently : 7525 is a good support and 7550 and 7600 and 7625 is nice resistance

AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, APPL is 25 +% of NASDAQ! only APPL held good yesterday

Happy trading !

 

Trend outlook 2018

YTD NASDAQ

For the first time since almost 30 years – the entire world is seeing +positive grown for 12 months!

Of the top ten largest corporations in the world in 2009, only one was a technology company – Microsoft.  Today, seven of the ten largest companies worldwide are technology companies including Apple, Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon, Alibaba and Tencent.  The shift to a technology dominated economy provides a boost to earnings growth rates.

Over a fifth of the S&P 500 is represented by the technology sector.  Consensus revenue growth for the technology sector in 2018 is 9.4% which should drive 35% earnings growth.  In the past month, the revenue growth forecast was revised up from 8.7% to the current 9.4%.

The earnings per share for the MSCI AC World Index (ACWI) is above $30.  In the U.S., the S&P 500 consensus earnings estimate is expected to advance by about 11% year-over-year on revenue growth of about 5% off of record levels reached in 2017.

If the P/E remains constant as it has for the past two years, the S&P 500 should be up in-line with earnings or about 11%.

Source : Delta market sentiment