last week, the day after Christmas we have had the best one day show in about 10 years in the market. But it was not convincing, why? because there was so small rise in the number os stocks going above the 50 days SMA in S&P 500. On the big day it went up by 3.39 which is insignificant compared to the drops (look at the big red candle o Dec 4th – one day drop of 23%!!)
also checking QLD – we see that on the same close at 12/20 the OBV was 56 million and on 12/26 the OBV was 53 million. this is divergence and hence the market is going to go down further.
on the COMP 6630 is the next resistance (weekly low on the week of Feb 5th 2018)
One positive thing is the DMSI – quoting them “The Delta Market Sentiment Indicator (MSI) declined to 7.5% this week. The range on the Delta MSI is from 0% to 100%. A 7.5% reading is very low and a sub-10% reading has only occurred during four periods (including this week) in the past 15 years (a longer history is shown this week instead of the usual 12 month review). Historically, the stock market has shown strong performance over the next twelve months post a sub-10% reading.”
looking at the big picture of weekly chart we see that it is good picture
trading what we see rather than what we think is key. the chart is explaining to us that the price action is good and majority of stocks are above their 50 days SMA in S&P 500.
1 red flags though. QLD daily in H-A price charts – it has a 3rd red volume bar on a green candle stick. but the volume is less than 1 million.
NASDAQ is down 2 % off its all time high. NYSE Advance Decline line A-D line, which is a breath indicator, is slightly below its all time high.
Market sentiment indicator is up for the week 56.9.
Decision : I am still long on QLD and NQ.
market remains unchanged. 65.27 % of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50 Days SMA.
Look at the chart above – QLD is in candle sticks weekly 2 years chart
IGV is software setor ETF and XLV is health care sector – QLD is up 124 % and
IGV – 76 % and XLV 30%
Nothing beats QLD
Decision : I will continue to be long on QLD and NQ
today is : Thur September 6th 2018 around 9:30 am Hyderabad, India. Time in New York City : 00:08 am on Thursday September 6th 2018
well them days!
a good pull back put some breaks and exits some people.. yesterday a good bounce off 22 SMA for QLD and NDX is a good sign
never the less the high volume sell off of last 25 -30 trading days has gone up to 5 for the entire market. the +1.2 % sell off in NDX had first occurred on August 15th and then just yesterday.
Now its the 5th continuous decline in S&P last 5 trading days but there is a silver lining. the accumulation distribution line A-D line has flattened with 1533 stocks down in 1.50 Billion volume and 1258 stocks up in 1.6 billion volume (yesterday was 990 stocks up in less than billion volume)
QLD has a clear slicing of 9 EMA on daily chart on higher volume – 517 K volume.
Now look at FFTY below – the leading growth stocks ETF. What a bounce above 22 day SMA and it closed just below the 9 EMA!
decision : stay in QLD.
for NQ As soon as euro market is opening it is falling
currently : 7525 is a good support and 7550 and 7600 and 7625 is nice resistance
AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, APPL is 25 +% of NASDAQ! only APPL held good yesterday
Happy trading !
For the first time since almost 30 years – the entire world is seeing +positive grown for 12 months!
Of the top ten largest corporations in the world in 2009, only one was a technology company – Microsoft. Today, seven of the ten largest companies worldwide are technology companies including Apple, Google/Alphabet, Microsoft, Facebook, Amazon, Alibaba and Tencent. The shift to a technology dominated economy provides a boost to earnings growth rates.
Over a fifth of the S&P 500 is represented by the technology sector. Consensus revenue growth for the technology sector in 2018 is 9.4% which should drive 35% earnings growth. In the past month, the revenue growth forecast was revised up from 8.7% to the current 9.4%.
The earnings per share for the MSCI AC World Index (ACWI) is above $30. In the U.S., the S&P 500 consensus earnings estimate is expected to advance by about 11% year-over-year on revenue growth of about 5% off of record levels reached in 2017.
If the P/E remains constant as it has for the past two years, the S&P 500 should be up in-line with earnings or about 11%.
Source : Delta market sentiment
above is a weekly close for QLD.
QLD which is 2X Nasdaq 100 appears to have hit a plateau 2 weeks in a row 10/16 and then last few days.
last 4 trading sessions NASDAQ hit 3 distribution days – which is concerning.
On 5/29 week QLD closed 62.65, where as the MA 20 Weeks was 53.67 – 8.98 dollars difference! about 14 %. Then it dropped by 6.3 dollars (around 10%)
The situtation is not that bad now – the difference between the two (MA and the price ) is about 4 %
Now for the current scenario – the ATR 20 DAYS is 2.43.
So lets wait and see. No clear sell as yet
what’s more at the top? More of the top.
Last week all the indices hit all time high. How far is far enough?
when P/E is constant, then the risk premium is constant.
P/E has been hovering for S&P Index around 20.5 for the last and half year (DEC 2015 to June 2017) . earning increased from 100 dollars to 116 dollars around 16%
So mostly the gain in S&P came from the gain in real earnings of the companies!
So assuming just the earning to grow by 10% (very reasonable..just the growth %) and P/E = 20.5 as constant
then S&P would be (116+10% of 116) * 20.5= 2615 – a gain of 144 points from today.
the leading economic indicators – % change has been positive for the last 10 months!
around 65 % of stock market is about its 75 days moving average.
Now value of companies according to the theory is based on discounted value of the cash flow. because of low interest rates companies can borrow much with little interest paid. Hence expansion, hence earnings growth!
“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes