The delta market sentiment indicator is at 19.6 currently.
the percentage of S&P 500 stocks that closed below their own resepctive 50 days SMA has fallen to an extreme of 15 % (out of say 100 stocks, only 15 stocks are above their own 50 Days Simple Moving Average (SMA))
According to Delta newsletter – “Since January, 2009 through today, we have only had eight instances when the MSI declined below 20%. Shown below is a chart of the MSI since January 2, 2009. Buying the market when the MSI dropped below 20 previously during this bull cycle has benefitted patient investors willing to incur heightened market volatility”
When the Delta MSI drops below 10%, Delta’s MSI based strategies may buy stocks. During the current bull cycle beginning in 2009, this has happened only twice. Over the past 27 years, it has happened five times. These times were:
- August 1990
- September 1998
- July 2002
- October – December 2008
- August 2011
The chart below shows the price change in the S&P 500 from the closing monthly price when the MSI went below 10% to twelve months and three years later. The chart does not include the additional benefit of dividends during the holding periods.
Be prepared to enter soon into the market
So here we are
end of month and end of week, and end of quarter
the charts are beautiful and worthwhile
my decision : continue in QLD
Friday Sept 28th around 10:00 am IST 00:30 am just past midnight New York time
today would be the last trading day of the month and also the last trading day off the quarter
Yesterday prices faded as the day ended. In the above chart $S5FI – The percentage of stocks in S&P 500 that are above their 50 days SMA…they have fallen the entire week!
18 points fall from August 29th from 73 to 55.
last time from June 12th to June 28th s&p 500 fell 83 points and $S5FI fell 21 points .
So that is a red flag
but the A/D line for NYSE actually went up
So i am little confused. Why did the market fade away so badly yesterday ? What are stocks falling below their 50 day SMA?
Now price is the true north star so
my decision : I will continue to be long on QLD and I am also long on NQ
Tuesday Sept 25th 2018 around 10:30 am – 12:30 a IST, which is past midnight Tuesday 01:00 am – 3:00 am Tuesday New York Time
I have exited NQ with around 60 points gain. Looking at the above chart. biggest red candle in the number of S&P 500 stocks that fell below their 50 days SMA . Its a 10 point drop ! S&P 500 dropped little more than 10 points. Very great anomaly. for a 0.3 % drop in S&P 500 the number of S&P 500 MEMBERS that dropped below their 50 DAY SMA fell by 15%.
NYSE advanced declined line – 1918 stocks down on 2.3 billion volume. Only 896 stocks up on 992 million volume
one positive sign : NDX opened at 7477 with 45 points gap down from previous day close.
now that was the lowest too! It swung up 71 points to close around 17 point more than previous day’s close!
my decision : i have already exited NQ, I am continuying to hold on to QLD
looking at the big picture of weekly chart we see that it is good picture
trading what we see rather than what we think is key. the chart is explaining to us that the price action is good and majority of stocks are above their 50 days SMA in S&P 500.
1 red flags though. QLD daily in H-A price charts – it has a 3rd red volume bar on a green candle stick. but the volume is less than 1 million.
NASDAQ is down 2 % off its all time high. NYSE Advance Decline line A-D line, which is a breath indicator, is slightly below its all time high.
Market sentiment indicator is up for the week 56.9.
Decision : I am still long on QLD and NQ.
Friday, September 21st 2018, around 9:00 am IST, around 11:30 pm Thursday Night New York Time
S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial average rose to all time high. Out of 197 industry groups tracked by IBD winners led losers by 7 to 1 !!
Look at the above chart – a 7.29 % jump in percentage of stocks in S&P 500 trading above 50 day SMA! to 70.03!
Important note : Friday is quadruple witching day. Volume is going to explode.
QLD good up day, good upswing above 9 Day EMA, good volume – 1.174 Million. OBV increased to 11.83 million
NYSE Advance decline line – fantastic and highest! 1907 stocks up on 2.48 Billion volume, which is about 4 times the volume of 898 stocks down on 0.70 billion volume !
Top bull day!
Decision : i will continue in the market Long on QLD and NQ
When the market fell on Monday, Look at the first chart – how much percentage of S&P 500 stocks fell below their 50 Day SMA? Just minuscule!
the second chart is the ETF FFTY is top 50 growth stocks in the market. It is holding well.
NFLX went up well in high volume on Monday.
Decision : I’ll continue to be in the market and am long on QLD and NQ.