A bull case for 3500 in S&P plus weekly review

Screen Shot 2019-04-13 at 11.11.16 AM

Not bad for 74 days, eh?

the source for this article is delta market investment newsletter Screen Shot 2019-04-13 at 11.10.57 AM

Delta continue : “For the market to return to its previous high, it will advance about 1.7% from current levels.  This is hardly a compelling upside story.  Is there a case to be made for the S&P 500 index to run materially higher than 2,940 in the next year?  The bullish price action of the stock market year-to-date suggests there is upside to consensus earnings and growth estimates.

One simple, time-tested rule of investing is the Rule of 20.  The Rule of 20 says the S&P 500 Price/Earnings (P/E) multiple equals 20 minus inflation.  The Federal Reserve currently measures inflation at 1.4%.  20 less 1.4 equals 18.6.  If we apply the 18.6 P/E multiple derived from the Rule of 20 to the consensus S&P 500 2020 earnings forecast of $187.42, we arrive at a price target of roughly 3,500 on the S&P 500 about one year from now.  That is 21% upside from current levels.”

IBD says this : “Leadership in the stock market is still centered on software, electronics, computer and chip sectors. They are showing no signs of weakness.”

Fidelity Weekly Ending Friday April 12th 2019barchart weekly Ending Friday April 12th

even for this week, except for health care and energy sector, all other sectors ended the week at the top of the trading range

Happy trading !

 

What a stock market rally so far? Weekly review for week of April 1st – April 5th 2019

How do you know that the stock market is doing well so far?

Let’s look at the general market picture below

Screen Shot 2019-04-06 at 3.22.44 PM

we see the advanced decline line nicely surpassing the previous all times highs in the last one week!

what would some other sign be?

In the worst week for the top performing industry group (Software Group), it lost less than 1 % !!

Screen Shot 2019-04-06 at 3.19.52 PM

what about sectors, How did they do ?

Screen Shot 2019-04-06 at 3.20.05 PM

there has been nothing down – no sector was in the negative last 1 month and last 3 months !!

I am long on NQ and TQQQ

Have a wonderful weekend !!

 

Market weekend review week of Sept 17th 2018

Screen Shot 2018-09-22 at 11.04.58 AMScreen Shot 2018-09-22 at 9.57.30 AM

looking at the big picture of weekly chart we see that it is  good picture

trading what we see rather than what we think is key. the chart is explaining to us that the price action is good and majority of stocks are above their 50 days SMA in S&P 500.

1 red flags though. QLD daily in H-A price charts – it has a 3rd red volume bar on a green candle stick. but the volume is less than 1 million.

NASDAQ is down 2 % off its all time high. NYSE Advance Decline line A-D line, which is a breath indicator, is slightly below its all time high.

Market sentiment indicator is up for the week 56.9.

Decision : I am still long on QLD and NQ.